Posted on 08/28/2004 5:02:45 PM PDT by plushaye
Four years ago, George W Bush won the state of Missouri by just three percentage points. In virtually the geographical centre of the United States, Missouri is once again a swing state.
So on the eve of the Republican Party's Convention, I went to Missouri to see how the president's support is holding up in this must-win state.
To fly into Kansas City, Missouri, is to arrive in one of the most hotly contested areas in this vast country.
In election 2000, just one vote separated the two parties out of 80,000 cast in this northwestern corner of Missouri known as Clay County.
To understand why President Bush is in with a strong chance here, you only need to drop into the Hardware Cafe in the small town of Liberty, where Jesse James once robbed banks and where law and order-loving local Republicans now do lunch.
I asked the lunchtime crowd what they have learned about President Bush over the last four years.
"He is a man of conviction. He has surrounded himself with good people, and when they come to a conclusion about an issue, that is the way it is," one diner said.
The president won't change his mind from month to month. He's not "wishy-washy", he said, adding, "I respect him more as a man than I did four years ago."
At a Republican Party fundraiser in a house big enough for a jazz band as well as nibbles and cocktails, there is a mood of quiet confidence about the coming election.
The guest of honour, Missouri Senator Jim Talent, just can't see John Kerry doing well in a state where guns are in and gay marriage and abortion are definitely out.
John Kerry is rated one of the most liberal members of the Senate, Mr Talent said. "I just don't think Missouri is there. That may sell in Massachusetts [Mr Kerry's home state], but not here in the heartland," he said.
"Missouri does not have a record of voting for people who are that far to the left," he added.
He says that voters are pretty satisfied with President Bush's record and are concerned about Senator Kerry's position on the issues.
"That will help deliver the state," he added.
But Missouri is hardly in the bag.
Walk around downtown Kansas City and you quickly find not everyone in the state is conservative, with opinion divided over whether President Bush deserves a second term.
"I think he is a disaster in all areas, especially in foreign policy, but also on the economy and all sorts of other domestic issues, like education and healthcare," one man said.
"My major fear is that Bush will be re-elected and that our relationship with the rest of the world will further deteriorate," he added.
Another man said: "I don't think that he has done a good job. I don't think that he should have gone into Iraq."
He added, "I think there is a lot of crooked stuff going on underneath the table with him that you don't know about."
A few miles up the road back in Liberty, but light years away politically, Mary Jolka is one of 36,000 volunteers in the state working for the president's re-election.
She didn't work on his 2000 campaign, but says that this time the stakes are higher.
"I feel that it is very important with what is going on in the world today to have a great leader, a strong leader, the one with character, the one who will do what he says," she said.
"I think the world sees that," she added.
Many Americans say that this is the most important election in a long time, and I asked Mary why she thought this election was so critical. "We live in an age of terrorism, and I think that is a big part of it. If you don't have freedom, you have nothing," she said.
Missouri's nickname is the "Show Me State", a place where people like to see before they believe.
It is the kind of attitude to life that favours President Bush, seen here as a plain-speaking man.
It may just give him the edge here in what is still a very close race.
Bush by 5 in Mighty Mo.
Factoid: Missouri has gone to the winner in every Presidential election since 1960. I think the other State to do this is Delaware.
Kerry can win on Cleavers coattails if Jean doesn't do her thing to the nth degree.
Claire McCaskill is also a force to recon with since she challenged the incumbent governor and won the primary against Holden. With so many fresh or eager faces on the Dem side it may be a landslide unless Republicans get out the vote. And to date - they haven't done much save run TV and radio ads.
Deleware votes DemocRAT unless there is a big Republican blowout like 1972 or 1984.
I won't hold my breath. Too many Kerry bumper stickers in MO two weeks ago when we drove through the whole state on I-44.
"Bush by 5 in Mighty Mo."
Being from "Missourah", Ozarks hillbillies for generations, I can say our part of the state will go for Bush by about 15%. My only worry is that Alderman Red Villa, dead for these many years, and the rest of the dearly departed in St Louis city cemetaries will vote more than their normal four or five times each for Kerry.
You know, the funny business in St. Louis is a big concern. I remember the Democrats were able to keep the polls open an extra hour...half hour? That might have been a major scandal, had not the Florida election overshadowed it.
I wonder, will this be an issue again?
I think Ashcoft is a major factor with the same type of Baspits he is (The ones who do not dance or listen to music.) They do not always show up in great numbers to vote and in 2000 since John had to turn off his GOTV there was figures showing 50,000 to 75,000 of them did not show up than usually did when he was on the ticket.
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