Posted on 08/27/2004 8:08:55 AM PDT by varina davis
BULLETIN
HURRICANE FRANCES ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM AST FRI AUG 27 2004
...FRANCES STRENGTHENS INTO A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE...
INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LESSER ANTILLES AND THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FRANCES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FRANCES WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 49.0 WEST OR ABOUT 820 MILES ...1320 KM...EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.
FRANCES IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR. A MOTION BETWEEN WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKES FRANCES A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND FRANCES COULD BECOME A CATEGORY THREE MAJOR HURRICANE LATER TODAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES... 30 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB...28.64 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...15.0 N... 49.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 970 MB.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM AST.
FORECASTER STEWART
I think you meant the northern Gulf...
as it is 6-7 days from any possible US consequences..these updates (which come every 4 hours) are probably not "breaking news"
nope.....northern carr. correct.
Oh, my God . . . now it's gonna insist that we call it Psycho.
HURRICANE FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT FRI AUG 27 2004
FRANCES CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED WHILE STRENGTHENING TO 90 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SUPPORTED BY A DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T5.0...OR 90 KT...FROM TAFB...A SATELLITE DATA T-NUMBER OF 5.0 FORM AFWA...AND 27/1010Z UW-CIMSS AMSU PRESSURE RETRIEVAL OF 969.8 MB...WHICH EQUATES TO ABOUT 90 KT. THE OUTFLOW REMAINS EXCELLENT AND ALSO CONTINUES TO IMPROVE.
THE MOTION IS NOW 300/09. FRANCES REMAINS ON TRACK AND HAS BEGUN TO SLOW DOWN. A NORTHWESTWARD JOG MAY OCCUR...BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO BE SHORT-LIVED AS THE WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF FRANCES IS FORECAST TO QUICKLY FILL IN AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALONG 52W LONGITUDE CONTINUES TO ZIP ALONG EASTWARD. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG AGREEMENT ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH 48 HOURS...BUT THEN DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER THAT. HOWEVER...DESPITE THE DIFFERING TRACKS...ALL OF THE MODELS AGREE ON HIGH ZONAL FLOW WITH STRONG WESTERLIES DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN U.S. AND THE NORTH ATLANTIC AFTER 48HR. SUCH A STRONG HIGH-LATITUDE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN IS USUALLY REFLECTED BY A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH THAT EXTENDS EAST-WEST FROM THE AZORES TO BERMUDA AND INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. MY CONCERN IS THAT THE RIDGE MAY BUILD IN FASTER THAN EXPECTED AND DRIVE FRANCES MORE WESTWARD SOONER THAN FORECAST ...WHICH IS WHAT THE 06Z GFS MODEL IS INDICATING. HOWEVER...MAKING SUCH A SUDDEN AND SHARP 45 DEGREE LEFT-OF-TRACK TURN AT 48 HOURS IS PROBABLY OVERDOING IT SOME...BUT OUT OF RESPECT FOR THE CONSISTENT TREND IN THE GFS MODEL THE PAST 24 HOURS...THE FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN NUDGED A LITTLE MORE SOUTH AND WESTWARD IN 72-120HR.
FRANCES IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND OVER INCREASING SSTS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...SO AT LEAST SOME SLOW INTENSIFICATION SHOULD OCCUR. THE SHIPS MODEL SHARPLY BRINGS DOWN THE INTENSITY TO 73 KT AFTER 72 HOURS DUE TO INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR OF 25-30 KT. HOWEVER...THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FICTITIOUS AND 'SELF-INFLICTED' BY THE GFS/SHIPS MODEL...DUE TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK BEING ABOUT 180 NMI NORTH OF THE GFS FORECAST POSITIONS IN 72-120H. THIS PUTS FRANCES IN THE STRONG WESTERLY FLOW IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF A VERY INTENSE UPPER-LEVEL HIGH THAT ALL THE MODELS DEVELOP OVER FRANCES. THE SHIPS MODEL WAS DISCOUNTED AND THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE GFDL SOLUTION.
FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 27/1500Z 15.0N 49.0W 90 KT 12HR VT 28/0000Z 15.8N 50.4W 100 KT 24HR VT 28/1200Z 17.0N 52.1W 100 KT 36HR VT 29/0000Z 18.0N 53.6W 105 KT 48HR VT 29/1200Z 18.9N 55.2W 105 KT 72HR VT 30/1200Z 20.2N 58.5W 110 KT 96HR VT 31/1200Z 21.0N 62.0W 110 KT 120HR VT 01/1200Z 22.0N 67.0W 110 KT
I disagree. If the hurricane is in the Florida Straits, it would have to turn south across Cuba to enter the Caribbean. Most forecasts I've seen have it not going that far south.
No, it doesn't - that map doesn't even show it going near the Caribbean. And, as I said earlier, if the hurricane is in the Florida Straits, it is already north of the Caribbean at that point - the Southern Cuban coast is the farthest north the Caribbean reaches.
"If I catch any of you guys having a hurricane party, I'll kill you."
There goes the condo in Key Biscayne...
Be a dear and find the track of Isabel for me. I've got this sinking feeling in the pit of my stomach, thinking that this one looks eerily familiar.
assuming the bahamas are loosely referred to as "northern carribean".....which is may be wrong but i think they are...then the northern carribean is in the track.
Lessee...1 aunt, 1 cousin and family in Ocala...1 sis and family in St Pete, 1 cousin and family in Palm Coast, 1 cousin and family in West Palm Beach, 1 cousin and family in Miami...
And to top it all off...
Hubby just started two months of Navy Aircraft Mechanic A School at NAS Pensacola...
Oh and kids and I are in VA Beach...
NHC Track map has Frances aimed for the Florida Straits and N. Caribbean during the next week!
The track map doesn't aim it towards the Caribbean - it keeps it north. There is an outside chance that Frances could veer WSW and hit the northern islands - but that would happen over the weekend. If no such turn happens, the next threat would be potentially to the Turks and Caicos islands and the Bahamas by midweek, followed by the Florida Straits and the east coast of Florida towards the end of the week.
So there is a very remote threat to the NE and Northern section of the Lesser Antilles within the next 72 hours.
The track of this storm was closer to Andrew, but it's staying slightly further to the south and is stronger now than Andrew was. They keep pushing the forecast track more to the west and south - but I don't think it would move with any kind of southerly component.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.