[Your Nightmare]

Care to post a link to some of those "studies"?

Sure.

The economic analyses reviewed suggest that the tax-free status of exports under a destination-based consumption tax may have short-term effects but is unlikely to have a long-run effect on the overall U.S. trade balance. First, these analyses conclude that the tax-free status of exports simply maintains a level playing field between domestic and foreign producers in domestic and foreign markets. Second, any increase in net exports in the short run is neutralized in the long run by exchange rate movements. However, the studies suggest that changes may occur in the composition of U.S. trade. For example, U.S. net exports of capital-intensive goods could increase, while net exports of labor-intensive goods could decrease.

source

[ancient_geezer]

Indeed an interesting link your found YN:

Looking over its content we find some interesting effects of a retail sales tax applied to imports and domestic products equally.

 

ftp://ftp.usitc.gov/pub/reports/studies/PUB3110.PDF

PDF page 33

Finally, Hines (1996b) argues that exchange rates move to reflect international differences in goods prices. Thus any increase in export competitiveness caused by a move to destination basis would ultimately be offset by appreciation of the U.S. dollar. Another line of reasoning is that countries use receipts from exports either to import immediately, or to make investments abroad which ultimately provide income to pay for a larger volume of imports in the future. Both of these arguments are based upon the observation that strong economic forces keep a country’s trade in approximate balance regardless of what other policy changes it may undergo. The likelihood that the change from an origin-based system to a destination-based system would in fact generate incentives to export and disincentives to import ultimately depends on the strength with which the long-run tendency toward balanced trade in fact operates. Grubert and Newlon (1995 and 1997) point out that a destination-based consumption tax does create an incentive for cross-border shopping, if goods can be reentered tax free, and for consumption abroad through travel or emigration. Finally, the ultimate effect of a flat consumption tax on the price of particular goods will depend on demand elasticities. Those goods for which demand is relatively inelastic may be able to pass through a larger price increase (tax inclusive) to purchasers than those with elastic demands.²⁹ Whether this would happen in specific cases would depend, among other things, on the price behavior of production inputs and competing products.

From what the paper you found has to say about the effect of a flat sales tax hitting both domestic manufacture and imports equally we would see

1. an appreciation of the dollar (expanded purchacing power, e.g. lower prices) and
2. an influx of investment from abroad in US industry,

to return trade balances back towards equilibrium over the long term after an intial surge in exports in relation to imports to the US..

Thus substantial benefit to the US economy and American standard of living arising from the implementation of retail taxes in place of the current income/payroll tax can be expected.

Strange, just what Jorgenson's results indicate should happen.

And supporting that survey Bill Archer references

Chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee,
Rep. Bill Archer (R-TX)
Speaking in his Congressional District in Houston, TX - August 12, 1996

• "A recent survey was done, in Europe and Japan, of the major corporations and I was astounded at the results. They were asked, 'If the US abolished its income tax and went to a sales tax, would that have any impact on your decisions?' Eighty percent of the corporations said they would build their factories in the United States of America. Twenty percent said they would move their international headquarters to the United States of America."