My prediction:
Bush opens up a good sized lead with the convention. Each debate strengthens that lead as people see the nuanced dork go up against a real man. Bush ends up with 57% or more of the popular vote - minimum 350 electoral votes.
There are more people determined to keep kerry out of office than there are 'anybody but bush' people. What is left of the maintream democrats will either stay at home or go for bush.
I think Bush has everything going for him right now, but he's gotta take advantage of the ammo that the left has laid at his doorstep. In the debates Bush should focus on Kerry's public service (or lack of) and leave the military issue to the Swiftees (they're doing a fine job of that). Kerry is obviously mortified of his Senate record and that's exactly where Bush should go. A two pronged approach--Bush from the legslative angle, the Swiftees from the military. Add to that any October surprise the pubs have in their back pocket (a major WOT coupe perhaps) and Kerry will be on Thorazine by mid-November.
Don't forget, the main arsenal in the pre-election holster of Kerry is the youth vote. The ones that are registering, protesting etc. The strange thing is on election day these future conservatives will be too busy playing with their game cube, nursing a hangover, or whatever to bother to vote. That segment I am sure is giving 5pts to Kerry. Pollster asks "How likely are you to vote?" They answer in the affirmative. Odds are they won't show up.
I think it could get MUCH worse for the Senator. Why do I have the feeling that the Hollywood Left is smelling the coffee and waking up to the fact that Kerry is the worst candidate to field against President Bush? I think one George Soros may soon wake up to this fact and is realizing what a financial sinkhole that US$15 million invested in MoveOn.org has become.