The Dems haven't learned yet that they aren't dealing with those Republican weenies in Congress anymore. This is George W. Bush.
How much was Kerry up in this poll last time? I thought they had him up by 7 point or so. If that is the case, then this is a massive 10 point swing! Don't worry about the state polls and the current EV count. First most of these public state polls are not even as accurate as the national slime polls. Secondly, as we have seen all year, the state polls "lag" the nationals by about 3 weeks. Expect Bush to pull a significant lead of 5-7 points across most of the polls by mid-sept. It may tighten back again due to the debates. But could go even more Bush if Kerry does pretty bad, which I expect he will do. Bush needs to have some snappy and memorable lines to throw at Kerry. Something like "Mr Kerry, if you can't handle a group of former shipmates, how can you handle OBL?". Something like the famous Reagan or Bensen lines.