This is a draft timeline. I thought I'd post what I have now (even though I still need to research some final details) rather than waiting until tonight as I have to run some errands and get caught up before the day is over.
The "hypothesis" is that every single Zawahiri-related communications to this point has some correlation to either an attempted or successful major attack.
08/06/1998 Next day over 200 killed and thousands injured in Kenya and Tanzania
09/20/2000 Three weeks later the USS Cole is attacked
10/04/2001 Congressional and media Anthrax attacks unfolding (2nd wave of 9/11)
10/07/2001 Rockaway crash six weeks later; retaliation for Afghanistan threatened
11/07/2001 Two days after "Dawn" nuclear retaliatory threat - - "Dragonfire" scare
04/17/2002 Three weeks later 14 die in Karachi bombing targeting French officers
10/09/2002 Three days later more than 200 people die in the Bali nightclub bombing
05/23/2003 Two weeks later 4 killed 31 wounded in Kabul attack on German peacekeepers
08/03/2003 Two days later the Jakarta Marriott is bombed
09/10/2003 female Iraqi Governing Council member Hashimi assassinated on 9/20
(attempted UN car bombing on 9/22 as follow-up to devastating 8/19 UN bombing)
09/29/2003 Eleven weeks after this specific threat to kill him, two attempts against Musharraf; 10/5 Haifa bombing pinned on Hamas kills 19 and leads to first Israeli strike on Syrian territory (besides early 80s air battle) in three decades with prospect of regional war
12/19/2003? Two days later, America goes to "orange alert"
02/2?/2004 Three weeks later the Madrid bombing is worst terror attack on Europe
03/25/2004 Ten days later the first coordinated nationwide Iraqi uprising begins
06/11/2004 One month later, an operation against NYC/NJ/DC targets is detected
9/9/2004 Attempted attack likely in days or weeks
Last August/September marked the beginning of a "fall offensive" in Iraq.
March/April saw a global "spring offensive" with Madrid (3/11), Ashdod in Israel (3/14) which would have been the deadliest attack in Israeli history if it had worked and led to the assassination of Yassin, the leader of Hamas, and the Iraqi Sadr national uprising (4/4) - - all within little more than three weeks.
This may be the beginning of a global fall offensive - - Russia (plane downings and Beslan), Iraq (week of escalating national violence), Afghanistan (escalating over next four weeks as we head to the Presidential election), Israel (Beersheba bus attack has not yet seen the Israeli response), Europe (coming attacks as truce has long expired), and finally America (intended WMD attacks to surpass 9/11 and meet rhetorical Islamist expectations built over a year).
Good catch!
If OBL releases a new tape, its a good bet thats the go signal.
Its nothing more than a feeling, but I bet he does pretty soon.
Nice work!
Excellent analysis. Thanks for your posts.
Good research, callmejoe. Thanks for posting that. I look forward to your updates.
This ROCKS joe, I'm going to be pondering it for a while.