[Aetius]

This makes sense in light of the fact that Gallup is about the only national poll that has showed Bush having a consistent national lead over the last two weeks or so.

I hope they're right.

[LS]

I think only Gallup, for whatever reason, has figured out cell phones/call screening in their samples. Ras seems to get part of it, because he always has Bush at 51-53% JA rating and a very close congressional rating, which SIMPLY DOESN'T COMPUTE to a Kerry lead.

At any rate, I'm convinced that Bush is ahead in OH, FL, NV, MO, AZ, AR, NC and is tied or slightly ahead in IO, NM, and WI. He is getting close in NJ and MN.

By election day, he'll add PA and either OR or NJ and get close to 320 EVs.