Economic Models Predict Bush Election Win

Reuters ^ | Mon., Aug. 23, 2004 | Alan Elsner

[Names Ash Housewares]

"Only three 20th century incumbents lost -- Herbert Hoover in 1932, Jimmy Carter in 1980 and Bush's father in 1992. In all three elections, the economy was either in recession, or in Hoover's case, depression."

Wow. I didnt realize this. Incumbants have a very good record of getting re-elected.

[fhayek]

It is interesting to note how few Democrat candidates have received at least 50% of the vote in presidential elections. FDR achieved this with regularity, of course. And Lyndon Johnson scored a landslide in '64. Jimmy Carter just made it. Other than that, nobody else. Not Gore, not Clinton, not Kennedy, not Truman, not Wilson, not Grover Cleveland in any of their elections. The next democrat going backwards was before the Civil War.

Republicans have achieved this mandate 16 times since Lincoln. Grant twice, McKinley twice, Theodore Roosevelt, Taft, Harding, Coolidge, Hoover, Ike twice, Nixon, Reagan twice and Bush I.

I guess we have to throw in Democrat Sam Tilden, got a majority of the electoral vote in 1876.

[fhayek]

Uh, Tilden got 51% of the popular vote in 1876.

[LenS]

Strange that one of the few Democrats to break the 50.1% barrier didn't win.

[RockinRight]

Ray Fair, a Yale University economist whose model is built mainly around gross domestic product growth and predicts that Bush will take 58.5 percent of the vote.

Coming from Yale, nonetheless...

Personally, I think 58.5% is a bit high, but I am thinking W will crack 50% of the popular vote and snag 307 Electoral votes.

[nutmeg]

bump

[RockinRight]

I have thought the same, but I don't really know if it would do much good to tap the Strategic Reserve.

[Betaille]

"but I don't really know if it would do much good to tap the Strategic Reserve."
It would do an enormous amount of good. The current oil price is so high because of potential disruptions in supply. The strategic reserve exists specifically to correct national security-related disruptions in supply. So if a small fraction of the Strategic reserve was sold in the market to increase supply, prices would drop significantly, not only becasue of the increase in supply, but also becasue it would show the markets that Bush is willing to tap the reserve if any more terrorist disruptions should occur in the near future.

[SuziQ]

Four years ago, Wlezien forecast that then-Vice President Al Gore (news - web sites) would win with 54.5 percent of the vote. In fact, he took 50.5 percent and lost the state-by-state Electoral College (news - web sites) vote after the Supreme Court settled a bitter dispute over the outcome of the vote in Florida.

They were off by 4% the last time? I'll take that. That means that the President will win 54.5% of the vote. I've been thinking 55% for a while, but this'll do.

[Theodore R.]

You forgot the great-grandfather of the current liberal governor of OH.

[Don Corleone]

They were off by 4% the last time? I'll take that. That means that the President will win 54.5% of the vote. I've been thinking 55% for a while, but this'll do.

Its ELECTORAL votes that count not popular. Bush could easily win the popular vote and be ousted by the electoral vote. Remember the red/blue map?? The almost completely socialist big city centers have a lot of clout.

[airborne]

"-In 2000, Mr. Gore received 48.38% of the popular vote, to Mr. Bush's 47.87%.-'

Does that include the46,000 person double vote fraud in NY/FLA?

[airborne]

"-In 2000, Mr. Gore received 48.38% of the popular vote, to Mr. Bush's 47.87%.-'

Does that include the46,000 person double vote fraud in NY/FLA?

[Lurking2Long]

Just the tip of the iceberg, my friend...