Posted on 08/19/2004 12:09:53 AM PDT by Positive
GOOG is official, the price is $85.00. It is expected to begin trading tomorrow 8/19/2004.
Thing is auction participants won't know until 8/24/2004 how many shares they are required to buy.
So if you choose to sell, how many shares do you sell?
If you buy tomorrow and the stock rises, what happens on the 24th when everybody finds out how much they got in the auction?<p. Could be some volitility. I will remind of one event a few years ago. PALM was to come at 16, interest was so great that it was priced at 32. It opened at about 45 and rose to 105 on the first day of trading, it closed that day at 60. This was March 2000. Palm piloted the crash of Nasdaq (pun intended) by August of 2002 the stock was below a dollar...come to think of it I can't remember where it went, there is no longer any PALM stock.
well, considering the price is 40% less than anticipated, I will venture to say interest in the first day of trading will be less than anticipated too...
My prediction is that the stock will fall below $80 before the end of the trading day.
Caveat: That unknown distribution on the 24th can throw a monkey wrench in my theory.
I won't disagree with you there. All the excitement over Google's IPO happend yesterday. Investors shrugged off the new high price of a barrel of oil ($47/barrel), looking forward to Google's first day of trade, and the NASDAQ closed up 2% from the previous day's trade.
I recall the PALM issue well.
I was working at 2Com at the time and the 10% spinoff was worth more than it's parent containing the spinoff.
Luckily I kept my distance from PALM and liquidated my 2Com options within minutes of them vesting.
The whole explaination internally about the spinoff was inconsistant.
Google seems different in that it is not a spinoff.
I have a biased opinion though.
Your mileage may vary.
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