Too much of this analysis is based on Bush getting a big boost from his convention. This question is far from settled and in fact if both sides are dug in he may get as little boost as Kerry got from his.
I remember all the upbeat hopes during the Dole/Clinton campaign. Everyone saying that when push came to shove people wouldn't re-elect as dispicable creature as Clinton.
Well, they did, and there are plenty of uninformed democrat drones that would vote for Stalin before Bush.
I'm hopeful, but not optomistic.....yet.
The first Gallup Poll after the DNC showed that Bush was solidly favored by 90% of the respondents that said they planned to vote for him while only 77% of Kerry's support was self identified as solid. There's alot more room available for a Bush bump than there was for Kerry...and besides Bush is an infinately more attractive candidate that Kerry.