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Is all this doom and gloom based on one poll from Colorado that shows Bush and Kerry tied? I focus more on the fact that Bush is within 5 in Pennsylvania and Michigan. That is probably closer than the Kerry campaign thought it would be.

No, it is not all doom and gloom - but we are trying to find trends - Many on here keep insisting that Kerry is "toast" ...he is "imploding, etc" - Facts are showing this not to be true -

GWB is stuck in the low 40's in several key States - Many GWB 2000 States are in play - (more so the Gore 2000 States) -

And lastly the notion that GWB lost PA and MI by around 5pts in 2000 - Why would you suggest he would lose them by more this time?? - The fact is after 4 years in office it is the GWB camp which I guarantee you thought they would be doing better in MI and PA at this point -

The state polls lag events and news by 3-4 weeks from what I have seen this year. So all of these are reflecting what little bounce Kerry got in July. Things do seem to being going Bush's way, but unfortunately, most of the polls are nowing showing signs of that. I think again that basically we are split 45-45 and that is hard core. The other 10% will determine the winner. As has been stated, msot undecideds break for the incumbant. But I think things have changed post 9-11. In the end, when people actually have to pull the lever, they are going to have to decide the future security of our country. I still believe Bush will win by a safe margin when all is said and done. And that is if there is no major gaff my Kerry or OBL is caught or another terrorist attack. And I do fell that Kerry is going to make a major public blunder before November; maybe in the debates.

Many on here keep insisting that Kerry is "toast" ...he is "imploding, etc" - Facts are showing this not to be true - GWB is stuck in the low 40's in several key States - Many GWB 2000 States are in play - (more so the Gore 2000 States) -

The idea that Kerry is imploding is based on the thought that at the convention he took his best shot to convince voters that he is stronger on terrorism and failed. The majority still think Bush is stronger. Kerry has been defined as a flip-flopper an he cannot change that.It does not bother me that it has not shown up in the polls yet.

As far as close Gore states I count Iowa, Wisconsin, and Oregon.

I think if we lived in a nation where only one political party had a convention , there were no debates, and campaigning was stopped over two months before the election then that party would win.Thankfully we do not live in such a nation.