[VadeRetro]

To calculate the probability of something happening, you need to figure all the ways it can happen and then do a probability for each one. If you don't know anything like all the possible ways, then you can't figure the odds. Within every scenario, if you don't know initial conditions in detail (Was it an undersea volcanic vent? A tidal pool? What minerals were present in the water and rocks?) you can't figure the odds.

The only calculations you ever see are something else entirely. Creationists figure the odds of something complicated like a modern cell jumping together all at once from some sub-unit like atoms, molecules, or single amino acids. Bad model. Garbage in, garbage out. All nonsense and nothing but. Even God wouldn't make a cell that way.

[AndrewC]

Exact odds can't be figured without the exact conditions. Odds nevertheless can be calculated. Insurance companies are in business.