[bluejay]

Modern bacteria are the survivors after 4.3 billion years of dog-eat-dog evolution. The early models cannot be described.

Why not? Surely, there is no shortage of imagination. (Just a side note, I thought early bacteria formed 3.6 billion years ago. Is that not right?)

You want an exercise? ...

Actually, I am not looking for an exercise. I am neither a statistician nor an evolutionary biologist. I do not expect members of this forum to build a model. I do expect that some one arguing evolution should know the odds and be able to point to a resource.

[balrog666]

I do expect that some one arguing evolution should know the odds and be able to point to a resource.

The odds of what (exactly) and as formed how (again as described as precisely as possible)? How can anyone compute the odds of an unknown event?

Do you really think the early life of Earth is so easily described? Do you think that the evolutionary pressures of the environment, predation, catastrophism, and the changes over billions of years are so easily described mathematically? Get real.