The IEM showed a shift to Kerry. Tradesports still bets on Bush. We'll have a better idea of who's really ahead after the GOP Convention in New York next month.
Yesterday's Iowa Electronic Markets had Bush up. Do you know something I dont?
I think we'll know exactly where this race is a week BEFORE the GOP convention - (the conventions now are just bells and whistles....and the public isn't watching or caring) -
August 20 -24 should tell us how this election plays out - if GWB is up (above 3pts) he should win in NOV - if GWB is down he is most likely going to lose - if it is a tie -then we will have a race right down to the finish -
Amazing how unprepared the GWB reelection team was on the 527 issue - it has killed us in the battleground States -
Yup, the convention and then the debates. Plus hopefully the Swiftboat noose around JfnK's neck will continue to tighten. Pray that the Kerry/Edwards campaign makes monumental mistakes in the weeks ahead. Something more devastating than the Wendy's lunch faux pas.
When comparing the Iowa Electronics Market to the Tradesports market, bear in mind that the Iowa Market is for who will win a plurality of the popular vote, whereas the Tradesports market is for who will be elected (either by receiving 270 or more EVs, or via the Congress in the event of a tie). Thus, Kerry might be (slightly) favored in the Iowa Market, even though Bush is (slightly) favored in the Tradesports market.
Nope, IEM still favors Bush, both in the winner-take-all and voteshare markets. But IEM swung to Kerry late last week. It was obviously being manipulated through "walking up the bid" on the DEM contract. I trade on IEM, and let's just say that manipulation is very easy to detect and undo.
The good thing about a market as a barometer of public choice is that manipulation can only work temporarily.