"No president that has been at or above 50 percent at this point in an election year has lost," Mr. Dowd added. "That is a good sign for the president's re-election."
the popular vote may be slightly unhinged from the electoral college, although I would think that it would be unhinged in the democrats direction. but that doesn't seem to be the case, since kerry has an advantage when you calculate electoral college votes based on state-by-state polls. it seems peculiar that bush leads in a nationwide poll.