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To: walford
...and this time, pray that NOAA and the NHC Don't try for such ridiculous accuracy in their forecasts.
2 posted on 08/14/2004 8:29:06 PM PDT by snapperjk (If you are a terror to many, then beware of many.)
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To: snapperjk
...and this time, pray that NOAA and the NHC Don't try for such ridiculous accuracy in their forecasts.

Huh? Trying for accuracy is bad?

The problem is media portrayal of forecasts. I suspect you don't actually read any original NHC products at all.

4 posted on 08/14/2004 8:33:36 PM PDT by Strategerist
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To: snapperjk

NOAA issues probabilities and warnings. The hurricane was well within the warning area AT ALL TIMES. The probabilities are simply probabilities. They were not misleading. Did you actually read a NOAA report?

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2004/prb/al032004.prblty.016.shtml?


9 posted on 08/14/2004 9:00:50 PM PDT by TaxRelief (Keep your kids safe; keep W in the White House.)
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To: snapperjk

The graphics you see above are the same used for EVERY NHC advisory...showing the error range in forecasting. Hurricane Charley made landfall about sixty miles south of Tampa..which fits well into the known error margin of forecasts. That is why Hurricane Warnings were posted on Thurday morning for the entire SW coast of FL..and why mandatory evac orders were given (for barrier islands and mobile homes, especially).

Unfortunately, the media tends to concentrate on the exact forecast track...and so they emphasized Tampa over everything else (due to it being the major metro area). The NHC specifically said in their advisories that small changes in direction could lead to an earlier or later landfall (either north or south of Tampa) due to the position of the storm and the topography of the FL west coast. This information is often glossed over by TV stations as they strive to prove that they are the most "accurate" weather authority in the market.


10 posted on 08/14/2004 9:10:25 PM PDT by wxdawg
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