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To: KarlInOhio; deport

Just for thought -- a few years ago I looked at the historical vote for president, in particular, the percentage of the Voting Age Population candidate's receive.

IIRC, historically (going back to McGovern) dem presidential candidates receive between 23%-24% of the Voting Age Population. It does not vary widely and is virtually a straight line.

In contrast, the GOP percentage ranges from about 21% to 28%. That is, after Watergate and the two times Perot ran, the GOP got about 21%. Every other time (except 2000) the GOP got about 27%-28%.

So, IMHO, Perot probably cost Clinton about 1% of the VAP (5% of the dem's usual vote), while he cost Bush I and Dole about 7% of the VAP (25% of the usual GOP vote).

But naturally, the media and the dems have spun the story that Perot cost both equally.

The reason the % VAP in 2000 was so close was because the Clintons had given Gore CA on a silver platter. I believe much of the difference in vote totals between Bush II and Gore is from the large disparity in CA.

By the way, I've been looking for those % VAP figures for awhile, but have been unable to find them again. If any of y'all find those figures, please give me a ping, thanks.


88 posted on 08/14/2004 11:33:53 AM PDT by Gothmog (The 2004 election won't be about what one did in the military, but on how one would use it)
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To: Gothmog
Well each dog has a bone and will defend it with his analysis.... lol

I can understand that in Bush I there maybe an argument for Perot costing him the election... I don't buy it though. But as far as Dole is concerned he lost period. If you give all of Perot's votes to Dole then he still doesn't win the popular vote and I don't think Perot voters come anywhere close to being nearly all republican voters.... The Republicans stayed home with Dole, imo.

Bush I lost to Clinton to a large degree on his own ineptitude, poor campaign, etc, imo.
91 posted on 08/14/2004 12:08:33 PM PDT by deport (Please Flush the Johns...... Take their BEEBERS and don't let them STUNED anyone)
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