10-15% bump? That just isn't in the cards. If would be nice if he canm just get to 50% and keep Kerry at 45-46%, or so.
Bush tied with Gore at 49% last time. Buchanan and Nader were present. Less this time. Bush probably needs 49.5 to win.
Now that is of the electorate. The polling now allows "undecided". There are none of those on election day, because they either choose or stay home. Of the polled numbers now, Bush at 48 almost certainly wins.