I agree. I've been telling people for a couple of years that China's economic reforms is creating the most dangerous thing in an authoritarian communist state... A growing middle class.
I've also mentioned that there are two ways that the Chinese can head off an internal problem... That's by waging an external war... Or, regressing and backing away from the technological society they were so bent on building.
A communist authoritarian state reaches a point where it must balance economic growth with rapid expansion and conquest.
And yes, I'm talking out of my....
My dad was an old China hand, worked for Otis Elevator as a young man, then worked for China National Airlines Company (part of American Airlines at that time). He always said the Chinese are too much of a merchant class to put up with rigid Communism for more than 50 years. He wasn't far wrong.
Didn't Germany also have a big middle class during the 1930s,but yet Adolf Hitler was the most popular leader around at that time,despite the obvious aggressive & fascist ideology he embraced-why???because his administration delivered massive economic growth & also "restored" German(Aryan) pride-Id say China more or less,belongs to this category.
The Middle classes during the Russian revolution,French revolution or the Indian Independence struggle all came to the forefront due to extreme economic or social problems they & wider society faced.Because a lot of Chinese have economically prospered under the Communist system with land reforms & massive reductions in poverty from a feudal set up-why should they go against the system-afterall most of us think first about money & only then self respect or even our conscience.The way the communists have meshed their version of imperialism with Chinese nationalism(Tibet,Hong Kong,Taiwan) is very popular with most of the Chinese people-if not,why do many of them see Taiwan as an integral part of China & are not averse to the use of force.
You are right on the use of war to keep control.But war is also the only sure device for a nation to ascend to the post of Superpower & now that China feels it's moment is around the corner with it's rapid economic & military development,They are making all these noises on Taiwan(& will probably carry out their threat).Afterall who would have cared about the US ,if it didn't hit Iraq or even participate in the 2nd world war?? in short ,war is the only vehicle for the rise of a super power.