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Due to the still unknown circumstances of those areas hardest hit by Charley, it is difficult to fully reflect on this storm that is still ongoing. Early reporting is indicating that some areas in the vicinity of Punta Gorda in southwest Florida may have been completely destroyed by Charley's fierce winds and powerful surge. Total loses are already estimated to be $15-20 billion and will likely go much higher. When all is said and done, this storm may rival or surpass Andrew in property cost and loss of life. There are varied reports coming out of the hardest hit areas about casualties, but there are at least a few indications that there may be bery many. Radar Image Depicting Wind Velocity before Landfall : Note the 165 KT Max
The white dot on the image above is Punta Gorda. Within the first set of lines, isolated wind speeds were likely sustained near 150mph. Because the eyewall was so small, the area of greatest impact will also be small. That said, towns within that eyewall are likely destroyed. If the fears are realized that many did not heed warnings, big problems were had somewhere along that path. We should expect horrific images from SW Florida come morning. I'm no 'weather expert' but I felt it was painfully apparent what this storm might end up doing back on Wednesday. All things appeared quite conducive to create a system that was going to explode in intensity after passing Cuba. I felt that it should have been conveyed to the public that the storm was almost certain to hit somewhere along the Florida Gulf Coast due to the abnormal trough for this time of year. The media also should have informed people that the chances of a large storm were great because of the normal August bath-water SST's in that region. I do not think the general public understands just how difficult it is to predict exactly where the strongest winds will be with a hurricane (especially one like Today's - with small eye walls). Once the evacuation orders were issued, people should have taken the warning very seriously. The fact of storm surge alone should have scared those who were near the water into leaving. I feel like the storm was largely ignored until it bombed out to a strong Category 4 this afternoon. People were laughing at the Category 2 just north of Cuba last night, they were not told that there was a great likelihood the storm would blossom as it did. I think the NHC did a good job but speculated that the model consistency meant a hit in Tampa. Whenever I heard someone talk about the storm yesterday, they said it was going to Tampa. That was a mistake in my opinion, but the NHC continued to use strong wording (even through this morning) that it was headed for Tampa (this mornings doubly ominous statement from Tampa NWS did not help matters either). I suppose the language chosen was partly in order to get people convinced to leave the Bay area. If this had taken the original forecast track, we might be wondering why we had no news out of TPA yet. Again, I am no expert, but I was able to deduce the following on Wednesday evening (in concert with the NWS): "Charley is still a big question mark. A Florida hit appears likeliest at this point, but some things today are focusing my attention towards the FL Panhandle/Coastal Alabama area. So far, Charley has stayed further south than any computer models suggested. This will allow the storm to have less interaction with land, and it is quite possible that it will be a very strong storm (verging on Category 3/Major) once it gets into the Gulf of Mexico. The bigger the storm gets, the less it will be pulled along by the jet stream to the north. If it can gain enough steam to become a major hurricane, all bets are off. By late tomorrow evening, questions in regards to a Florida hit will be answered. This East Coast Trough (frontal system - jet stream buckle) is VERY strong for august and is actually much more typical once we get into Autumn in the US. If Charley does not manage to create it's own weather, he will certainly go right up the east coast after the initial hit somewhere in the eastern GOM. This following image is a historical map of where storms have gone that have been in Charley's neighborhood. If western Florida does get hit, this will be a very unusual August storm system." |
