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Read "The Storm of the Century," about the Florida Keys Labor Day Storm of 1935 (killed about 600). Also "Isaac's Storm," about the Galveston Gale of 1900 (killed 8000). In both cases there were many warnings about storms and the blame was placed on the forecasters for not telling the victims how bad it would be. Now the warnings could have been better, but forecasting was an even more inexact art in 1900 and 1935 and it certainly seems to me that any warning at all should have been heeded. But no, it was the forecaster's fault for not telling them how bad it would be (just as an aside, I think the critics were right about the inadequate warnings of 1900, but wrong to place any blame on the NWS for the 1935 disaster).

The lesson I hope all along the Atlantic and Gulf Coast will learn is prepare for the worst possible scenario. You will evacuate needlessly several times in your life, but that is far better than ending up like those Bonus Marchers on the Keys, the residents of Galveston, the hurricane partiers at the Richelieu Apartments in Gulf Shores, or - our newest object lesson - those unfortunates in the trailer park in Punta Gorda.

However, if you choose to remain in your homes despite warnings, I for one will have little sympathy for your complaints that the forecasters never told you how bad it would be. The predicted paths have ranges and probability fields for a reason. Newspapers publish predicted paths as lines because that is easy, but the National Hurricane Center has been providing strike probability maps for years. They also provide predicted wind strength ranges. All the storms people complained about recently - Hugo, Andrew and Charley to name a few - were within the prediction ranges both in track and strength (albeit in the very upper range on the strength predictions). If you are anywhere in the predicted strike probability cone published by the NHC, you are on notice. Either evacuate or live with the consequences. Don't blame the forecaster.

Thanks for the info. I grew up in Ft. Lauderdale and have heard about those two major 'canes but have not really read up on them. It was of course, very sad that so many people lost their lives in those storms and that the mechanism for predicting hurricanes back then was so different from what we have now. It's also strange that they didn't even name them back then. I guess the only ones people talked about were the those that were so terrible no-one could forget them.