Posted on 08/13/2004 6:58:03 PM PDT by Roscoe Karns
WASHINGTON (AP) - Once Hurricane Charley is gone from Florida, it's a safe bet President Bush will sweep in. Natural calamities present political opportunity, and many crucial electoral votes are in the path of Charley's howling winds.
President Bush declared a major disaster in Florida on Friday, ordering federal aid for the recovery effort just two hours after Charley hit the mainland.
Officials are loath to ascribe campaign motives to emergency response, but politics infuses everything this close to an election. No more so than in the state that handed Bush the presidency.
"This provides both opportunities and real dangers for the president," said Dario Moreno, a Florida International University political scientist.
Presidents are measured by the aid and sympathy that follow a big hit from nature, and Moreno said Bush stands to gain as long as he treats the emergency as more than a chance to roll up his sleeves and clear a bit of rubble for the cameras.
"If he looks like he's doing this for a photo opportunity, it's going to backfire on him," he said. "He has to make sure FEMA and the emergency aid responders are working around the clock and without a hitch."
With 145-mph winds, the hurricane bore down not only on the scene-stealing state of the last election, but one of the most politically dynamic parts of it - the western and central counties where both parties are in heated competition for the tens of thousands of non-Cuban Hispanics who have moved there since 2000. Florida offers 27 electoral votes, the fourth-biggest prize.
For Bush, lessons of disaster politics are close to home.
His father's political advisers were caught flat-footed at a similar point of the campaign cycle - August 1992 - when Hurricane Andrew wreaked havoc in Florida. Thousands went without shelter and other necessities for days while the magnitude of the storm slowly sank in for the federal government.
The first President Bush was roundly criticized for overseeing a by-the-formula response to extraordinary needs. He visited the area, but his administration declined an initial appeal to send a military engineering brigade and other troops for the relief effort and stumbled over disaster aid.
Barring an obviously inept performance from the White House, natural disasters inoculate presidents from campaign criticism for a time because opponents are wary of second-guessing the nation's leader in a crisis and can't be seen as trying to capitalize on people's misfortune.
Democratic presidential nominee John Kerry, for example, won't let himself be seen as begrudging Floridians federal relief dollars no matter how generous, analysts say.
"He can't accuse the president of politicizing a tragedy," said Kathryn Dunn Tenpas, a University of Pennsylvania presidential campaign scholar. "Kerry is best to be silent on the issue."
In 1992, Democratic candidate Bill Clinton toured Andrew's aftermath but carefully avoided jabbing at his opponent over the halting response. And when Washington rebounded with promises of massive aid, his campaign was mum.
Clinton's on-the-scene empathy after the Oklahoma City bombing moved people during a low point in his presidency.
Mondale drew huge crowds in October in 1984.
Kerry's crowds are big because 35% of the country hates Bush; but that won't get them the election.
Interesting about Mondale, but I don't even think that Kerry is even drawing those that big of crowds, even given the visceral hatred that the left spews everyday.
Warning: this article is rated DP (Democrat Projection).
And Richard Mellon Scaife financed that hurricane. It sure didn't get here by hitch hiking.
Kerry should tap hurricane TerAYzah as the issue spokeswoman here. She's got a way with words, dontcha think?
Well .. not just the timing .. but I mean this has to be a right-wing conspiracy with some big wig Texan .. doncha think ..??
TerAYzah could make that hurricane stop dead and go back to where it came from!
Warning: This article is rated DP (Democrat Projection).
Where were you at? I was in the Tamiami Airport/Country Walk area.
I also remember the incredible number of people who would have rather died than lift a finger to help themselves. If it wasn't for the military coming in, these people would have died out of sheer stupidity.
BTTT
Problem is Floridians would rather deal with Charley than with her.
Sorry - thought I was bumping another thread.
It's only a matter of time before someone suggests that and is serious about it.
Bill Schneider gave it the "Political Play of the Week."
It is a test, in a way. I believe the Lord sent this hurricane in order to allow the President to remind swing-state voters of his crisis-management and leadership abilities under pressure. While my heart breaks for those who suffer losses in the storm, it will ultimately be for the greater good.
Where were you at? I was in the Tamiami Airport/Country Walk area.
I was there the day after Andrew hit and I remember helicopters refueling over the Tamiami airport. They were probably National Guard. When the feds were brought in I saw C5's flying into Opa Locka every five minutes. Incredible!
I took about 10 rolls of film that week. Have some cool pictures somewhere around here of them refueling over my house. There were at least 20 helicopters stationed at Tamiami Airport. Everything from Kiowas to Pavehawks. MDCC was turned into a command post for the National Guard. I made a number of trips over there to drop off goodies for them.
I found it rather interesting, early this afternnon, that gov. jeb bush was making damage estimates before the storm came ashore.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.