TD5 is in a similar spot Charley was. I was thinking it might go out to sea or take a more typical August track into the western GOM. Is the trough still supposed to be in place next week? I know it has been quite pesky for what seems like a solid 2 years...
I have a feeling Bush will send whatever is needed to the region. The increased importance of organizations like FEMA since 9/11 is producing much better relief efforts in my opinion.
It also looks like the track may have shifted more to the west, it appears to me that the movement since the eye left land is just a few degrees shy of north.
Looks like the trough will weaken for a while...but then re-establish itself by mid to late next week. That's why I have very preliminary concern for FL again.
You are right about the persistant trough over the East. A very winter-like pattern...extremely unseasonable for August. Global warming, you know ;)