Posted on 08/13/2004 10:08:09 AM PDT by Jeff400000
We'll be leaving together.....I have a friend in Lynchburg that will take us all!
Likely.
It's a little cooler after dark, but if it slows down (instead of speeding up) then it will definitely get back up a Cat or two.
I'm watching Shep on FNC and he keeps asking about Pine Island but no word yet. When I was watching TWC it looked like the surge was less than expected but Jim was not close to the islands.
AAABEST lives in the area and I've been calling him but no answer yet.
What are you talking about?
It was at least 127 MPH........you think that's small?
0300Z (11 pm EDT) forecast track update. Looks like they've shifted it very slightly west...second landfall appears to be estimated between Georgetown and Myrtle Beach, north of Cape Romain, in about 15 hours (call it 1400 EDT tomorrow). Then on up into interior NC, back over the Chesapeake, and northward to dump some rain on NYC.
At the angle they are showing it, it looks like it's going to rake every inch of the South Carolina coast with something. Beaufort/Charleston will get the west side of it, Myrtle Beach will get the east side of it after landfall. Depending on what the west side of the whole mess looks like, we might even get drenched here in Columbia.
}:-)4
My aunt has a mobile home in Port Orange right below Daytona, thankfully she's up here visiting. Doubt her home is there anymore.
The AREA of absolute maximum winds was quite small. Not the strength of max winds.
Yes, Port Orange got clobbered, but don't be so pessimistic.
Most houses are probably ok.
The eye (most extreme winds) is about 5-10 miles north.
(That's not much. but every mile helps.)
Wilmington here!
I think you're wrong; and I'm betting the morning light proves me right.
My niece just moved into a brand new house June 15th!! I have friends over on Figure Eight.
Stay safe!
0300Z (11 pm EDT) forecast track update from Intellicast...I don't think anybody along the coast is going to get spared a lashing from this one. It's going to move in at a very shallow angle and might stay close enough to give Charleston and Beaufort a rough ride (at least a lot of rain) before hitting further north. If I read that right, and if their guess is correct, I wouldn't want to be near Pawley's Island in about twelve hours.
Of course, between their 0800 EDT and 1400 EDT forecasts today, they moved the storm track over SC east over 100 miles. This morning they had it coming right up I-95 or just west; six hours later, it was going to come ashore at the SC/NC state line. For all the technology and expertise they have at their disposal, forecasting these monsters sure isn't a very exact science!
}:-)4
Well, if you figure that it was a 2 when it left Cuba and was a 4 when it came on land, I'm worried.
We just had a lull....now it's actin like it wants to start
again....which it sounds like it is....geez, at least the house is still here....everybody's OK...also if Sprint needs me to be a spokesman for their satellite PCM-CIA card,
it is even workin in this hurricane ....this freeper HIGHLY
recommends it!!
Read back and I was arguing the exact same thing to people who felt there wasn't really much damage.
The area of the ABSOLUTE MAXIMUM category 4 winds was very small, relatively speaking, compared to other Cat 4/5 hurricanes. That was measured by recon, and is reflected in the HRD analysis map at the link I posted.
There's still going to be enormous damage because you had hurricane force winds going through Orlando, etc. But it explains why Ft. Myers damage isn't really that bad, etc. There's obviously horrendous damage in Punta Gorda, Port Charlotte, etc.
Will do!Just keeping an eye on the track.When Fran came through here it stayed at the mouth of the Cape Fear for the longest time.Glad this storm is moving fast!
Yes, creeks and ponds are at the overflow mark right now. At Fran - Crabtree overflowed until Glenwood Avenue itself was a river! Came in the lower level of the mall. Had forgotten that part of the Fran Nightmare!!!
Are you going to evacuate? I am thinking of heading West to the Mtns of NC for the weekend - enough of this nasty stuff!
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