If it does bypass Tampa just off shore, it may actually do more damage because of the huge potential for storm surge. The big problem here in the Bay area is that we are, in most places, no more than a few feet( 5-15 ) above sea level. Lok for all the barrier islands and coastal areas to be under several feet of water. No one dares utter the possibility of "Andrew" level of damage, but I believe it is possible, not from wind, rather water.
I lived through Andrew while living in south florida. Charley reminds me of him a bit because of the size of the storm and the intensity it is going to get off the gulf stream. If you look at what the winds were at 24 hrs out of South Florida with Andrew and look at them with Charley..there is only a 10 mph difference at the moment.
Tampa is expecting wind gusts of 150-160 mph according to all local reports. Considering I will be in Plant City which is 15 miles out of the city...I have a feeling I will be going through them in the morning.
In 1963 (I think; it's been a while), there was a little storm associated with a cold front in October. It was not a tropical system, but water was four feet deep on Bayshore. In 1985, Elena stayed off-shore for better than 24 hours before going to Biloxi. Water was several feet deep on Bayshore again.
If this one comes in on the Pinellas peninsula as a Cat 3, it's gonna be a helluva mess.