That said, the trough sitting in the Gulf and cutting through Florida is a darn good indicator that the storm will hit the region. I guess the question is, how strong and exactly where.
You are right about damage/expense, this could be a very big disaster if current thoughts verify.
Most of those places will be wiped out by a Cat 3/4 storm. The whole Tampa Bay area looks like that.
Somewhat of an overused myth, actually. Only happens with Cat 5s/VERY strong 4s reinforcing a ridge to their North, and it won't overcome a strong deep-layer trough.
Storms really are leaves in a stream, rather than having minds of their own. The problem is determing the precise flow pattern of the stream. Computer modeling has generally been quite good so far on the path of Charley, and they were near-perfect for Isabel last year.