I would not be surprised but would be disappointed if Bush wins the popular vote but loses the Electoral College voter.
This can happen by Bush Winning Big in Texas, the South and the Western Red States while Kerry runs just ahead of Bush in the NE, CA and Midwest.
I have actually had nightmares of this scenario.
But Kerry would have to win some states that Bush carried in 2000. Those states now have 278 EV rather than 271.