Iran is in a horrible situation, and the mullahs know it. We know it is backing al-Sadr and other "insurgents". We know that it is supplying intelligence and money to terror organizations. We have every reason to expect Iran would supply nuclear capabilities to our enemies. We probably have the information now to build the case. And unlike Iraq, the extent of corrupt ties with France, Russia, Germany and other "powers" is greatly less than with the UN food-for-oil corruption that characterized Iraq. In fact, the Muslim fundamentalism threatens Russia (a threat Iraq did not pose).
This means less foreign opposition to regime change in Iran.
But the worst sign for Iran is $45 per barrel crude. The world economy tanks at that number (or grows too slowly to support incumbency). When Iraq shuts down two Persian Gulf pipelines in the face of Iran-supported "freedom fighters", the endgame for the mullahs is in sight.
I predict coalition troops on the ground in Iran before next summer and an active opposition ready to return Iran to a western-style economy and government.
With Iraq, Libya and Iran at full pumping capacity, spot prices for crude will be in the 20's, and the GOP candidate will be viable in 2008.
We shouldn't be considering politics in the same breath with national survival. The sitting President will do what will best ensure the survival of the country regardless of how it affects his chances in the next election or his Party in the election after.
The Saudi Arabians announced today that they are upping their daily production. I was running the vacuum cleaner and didn't turn it off in time to hear the exact number - but it's a hefty one if I caught what I thought I heard.
At the same time, Pres. Bush is socking away 100,000 barrels of oil daily - just to have a nice supply to release in case it has to. Plus our Navy and AF, okay, our Military happen to need that fuel if we get into a squeeze play.
There are predictions by stock market gurus that oil will be over $60 a barrel in two months. They figure that the oil will continue to be blocked coming out of Iraq, the Saudi's won't bother to make up the shortfall, the Russian oil company is close to being taken over by Putin, and Mexico has never bothered to help us. If oil goes that high, there goes the recovering economy and that makes it very tough for the President to run on the economy. yet for the first 6 months of this year, the economy was improving at 20-year highs. WHY don't we hear that statistic on the alphabet-soup stations and in the newspapers? Because THEY don't want Americans to know that Pres. Bush's handling of the economy has been exactly right. Not too hot, not too cold. And imagine what Kerry will do to us, with all of the tax increases to pay for all the programs that he's said he wants to do, but it will be OUR money in the form of taxes that pays for all of that healthcare (which his running mate has driven up, thanks to his damn lawsuits.)