Posted on 08/10/2004 4:09:42 PM PDT by My Favorite Headache
Double Dose Of Storms Surprise Experts
Officials Try To Coordinate Plans Across State
POSTED: 6:05 pm EDT August 11, 2004
UPDATED: 6:55 pm EDT August 11, 2004
TALLAHASSEE, Fla. -- State officials are scrambling to stay on top of this constantly changing weather situation. Even the experts said they are surprised to be dealing with two storms at once.
Florida State University meteorology professor T. Krishnamurti said this is the first time he can remember Florida being in the crosshairs of two storms at the same time, WESH NewsChannel 2 reported.
"You do get a lot of surprises, almost always. When you go back to Andrew, that was something else," he said. "Ever since then, we saw many years of hurricanes and, I mean, this is unusual, definitely very different."
The double whammy is also affecting operations at the state Emergency Management Center, which is coordinating plans in two parts of the state at once.
The operations center pulls staff from all of Florida's agencies, including the departments of health, transportation, and the National Guard, to make sure everyone is on the same page.
Craig Fugate, the director of Florida Emergency Management, said it has become a challenge with evacuations possible for much of the state.
"It means we're having to set up conference calls for one storm with one group in the state, and then another conference call with the other part of the state," he said. "Then there are counties that are actually overlapping."
Florida officials faced similar challenges when several parts of the state were affected during the 1998 wildfire season. Officials said this double dose of storms could put a lot of those lessons learned to the test.
Until the hurricane warnings go into effect for Charlie, the center will remain at Level 2 activation. Then it will kick into Level 1, which means around-the-clock mobilization until the danger has passed. The levels refer to staffing levels, and currently, officials said they are trying to keep state employees fresh for the expected long days ahead.
Amtrak Cancels Train Service Due To Tropical Storms
Bonnie, Charley Bring Potential For Service, Safety Problems
POSTED: 6:34 pm EDT August 11, 2004
UPDATED: 6:40 pm EDT August 11, 2004
WASHINGTON -- Amtrak officials anticipate service and safety problems as a result of Tropical Storms Charley and Bonnie.
T.S. BONNIE
Public Advisory
Discussion
Projected Path
HURRICANE CHARLEY
Public Advisory
Discussion
Projected Path
ADDITIONAL RESOURCES
INTERACTIVE: Hurricanes 101
INTERACTIVE: Atlantic Hurricane Tracker
INTERACTIVE: All About Flooding
National Hurricane Center
QUIZ: Survive This Hurricane Quiz!
The forecasted landfall of two tropical storms in the southeastern United States prompted Amtrak officials to temporarily suspend train service between New York City and Miami.
Canceled trains include those scheduled to leave New York or Miami on Thursday.
This affects all Silver Service trains:
The Palmetto (trains 89, 90)
The Silver Star (trains 91, 92)
The Silver Meteor (trains 97, 98)
Additionally, the Auto Train (trains 52, 53) that operates between Lorton, Va., and Sanford, Fla., is also canceled Thursday.
Northeast corridor service between Boston, Washington, D.C. and Newport News, Va., is not affected by these cancellations.
Also, Amtrak's New York City to Charlotte, N.C., Carolinian (trains 79, 80) and Raleigh-Charlotte Piedmont (trains 73, 74) will operate as scheduled Thursday.
The potential for flooding as well as power outages that could affect signals along the rails are the reasons for the temporary cancellation of service. A decision about train operation for Friday will be made Thursday afternoon.
Passengers who had plans to travel on the above-mentioned Amtrak trains will be accommodated on other trains once service resumes. If passengers choose not to be accommodated, they may request a refund.
The center was coming over Melbourne this morning now it looks like the center will skirt 20 miles north according to latest maps.
I am making a special request that this thread be kept in breaking news...we are now in a state of emergency here in Florida...AMTRAK cancelling trains to Florida...and shelters opening. Lots of Floridians on FR and in the surrounding areas.
The fact that this is being kicked out of breaking news and the sidebars is a disgrace.
Good luck to you Floridians. The forecast won't be really accurate for my neck of the woods for a couple of days.
BULLETIN
HURRICANE CHARLEY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM EDT WED AUG 11 2004
...HURRICANE CHARLEY HEADING FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING PROVINCES OF
WESTERN CUBA...PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...
MATANZAS...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH. THIS WATCH WILL PROBABLY BE
CHANGED TO A HURRICANE WARNING TONIGHT.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM DRY TORTUGAS TO OCEAN REEF
INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY...AND FROM FLAMINGO NORTHWARD TO BONITA
BEACH. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
THE HURRICANE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG THE
FLORIDA WEST COAST TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY.
AT 8 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CHARLEY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.2 WEST OR ABOUT 250 MILES
...400 KM...SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN OR 140 MILES...220 KM...
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA.
CHARLEY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR.
A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER WILL BE PASSING NEAR OR OVER THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS ON THURSDAY. RAIN BANDS WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS IN SQUALLS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT MUCH OF JAMAICA THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD OVER
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS EARLY THURSDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IN CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE
HURRICANE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 115 MILES...185 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES.
ABOVE NORMAL TIDES...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING
WAVES...ARE LIKELY ALONG THE COASTS OF JAMAICA THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT...AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE LIKELY IN ASSOCIATION WITH
CHARLEY. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUD SLIDES.
REPEATING THE 8 PM EDT POSITION...17.2 N... 78.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 993 MB.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 PM EDT.
FORECASTER AVILA
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
525 PM EDT WED AUG 11 2004
FLZ007-009>011-013-016-017-019-026-029-120325-
CALHOUN FL-GADSDEN FL-HOLMES FL-INLAND WALTON FL-JACKSON FL-
LAFAYETTE FL-LEON FL-LIBERTY FL-MADISON FL-WASHINGTON FL-
527 PM EDT WED AUG 11 2004
CORRECTED EXPIRATION TIME OF WATCH
...AN INLAND HURRICANE HIGH WIND WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY
FOR THE INLAND COUNTIES OF THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND...
AN INLAND HURRICANE HIGH WIND WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY
FOR THE INLAND COUNTIES OF THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND FLORIDA
BIG BEND. THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...
INLAND WALTON...WASHINGTON...JACKSON...CALHOUN...
LIBERTY...GADSDEN...LEON...MADISON AND LAFAYETTE.
TROPICAL STORM BONNIE CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...AN IS FORECAST TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH TOWARD
MORNING. AT ITS PREDICTED STRENGTH...BONNIE SHOULD SPREAD TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS AND HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS TO COASTAL SECTIONS OF
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND FLORIDA BIG BEND...AND HURRICANE OR
TROPICAL STORM GUSTS TO SOME INLAND SECTIONS. THESE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BEGIN EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...AND SPREAD RAPIDLY
NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY.
RESIDENTS SHOULD BE PREPARED TO MOVE TO SHELTERS...AND IF HOME TO A
SMALL INTERIOR ROOM AWAY FROM WINDOWS. IF YOU LIVE IN A MOBILE HOME
OR OTHER DWELLING THAT PROVIDES LITTLE PROTECTION FROM FLYING GLASS
AND DEBRIS...DEVELOP PLANS FOR A POSSIBLE ALTERNATIVE SHELTER.
THIS WATCH MAY BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING LATER TONIGHT.
$$
24-BLOCK
7-TREXLER
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
729 PM EDT WED AUG 11 2004
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A
* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
CALHOUN COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST GEORGIA
THIS INCLUDES MORGAN
SOUTHEASTERN RANDOLPH COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST GEORGIA
* UNTIL 930 PM EDT
* NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES 5 TO 10 INCHES OF
RAIN HAS FALLEN OVER RANDOLPH COUNTY IN THE UPPER DRAINAGES OF
PACHITLA CREEK AND ICHAWAYNOCHAWAY CREEK IN SOUTHEAST RANDOLPH
COUNTY DURING THE PAST TWO HOURS.
* 2 TO 3 FEET OF WATER WAS REPORTED OVER LOWER SHELLMAN ROAD BY PACHITLA
CREEK JUST EAST OF CUTHBERT. RAPIDLY RISING WATER ON PACHITLA CREEK
WILL AFFECT AREAS DOWNSTREAM INTO CALHOUN COUNTY OVER THE NEXT TWO HOURS.
ROADS THAT COULD BE FLOODED INCLUDE...FOUNTAIN BRIDGE ROAD AND THE
COMMUNITY OF FOUNTAIN BRIDGE...STATE ROADS 37 JUST WEST OF DICKEY...48
WEST OF MORGAN AND COUNTY ROAD 153 SOUTH OF MORGAN.
* DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO
CROSS SAFELY. VEHICLES CAUGHT IN RISING WATER SHOULD BE ABANDONED
QUICKLY. IT ONLY TAKES A FOOT OR TWO OF FLOWING WATER TO SWEEP
MOST CARS AWAY. REMEMBER...MOST FLASH FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN
AUTOMOBILES.
LAT...LON 3185 8463 3162 8457 3159 8448 3148 8444
3145 8449 3145 8458 3147 8473 3181 8477
$$
52-LANIER
HURRICANE CHARLEY LOCAL STATEMENT...CORRECTED FOR CODING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
555 PM EDT WED AUG 11 2004
...HURRICANE WATCH IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST...
...AREAS AFFECTED...
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM FLAMINGO TO BONITA BEACH ALONG THE FLORIDA
SOUTHWEST COAST WHICH INCLUDES THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF COLLIER AND MAINLAND
MONROE COUNTIES. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 500 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CHARLEY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.0
NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.5 WEST OR ABOUT 700 MILES SOUTHEAST OF NAPLES. CHARLEY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH AND A GRAUDAL TURN TO THE
NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
NEAR 75 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS MAKING CHARLEY A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM PRESSURE IS 993 MB...29.32.
...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
DURING A HURRICANE WATCH PERSONS SHOULD REVIEW THEIR HURRICANE PLAN TO BE SURE
THEY HAVE HURRICANE SUPPLIES ON HAND...INCLUDING SHUTTERS. BOATERS MAY WANT TO
TAKE EARLY PROTECTIVE ACTION TO SECURE THEIR CRAFT.
RESIDENTS OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST ARE URGED TO STAY TUNED TO LOCAL RADIO AND
TELEVISION FOR NOTICES FROM LOCAL AUTHORITIES.
...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS...
TIDES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING THEN
BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. IF CHARLEY REACHES
CATEGORY TWO INTENSITY AT LANDFALL...THE HIGHEST STORM SURGE COULD BE AROUND
10 FEET NEAR WHERE THE EYE MAKES LANDFALL ON FRIDAY.
...WIND IMPACTS...
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND REACH TROPICAL STORM
FORCE THURSDAY NIGHT AND HURRICANE STRENGTH FRIDAY MORNING.
...LOCAL MARINE IMPACTS...
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL BEGIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING AND
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED EARLY FRIDAY MORNING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO
COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAMINGO TO BONITA BEACH. RIP CURRENTS AND DANGEROUS
SURF CONDITIONS WILL MAKE SWIMMING IN THE GULF HAZARDOUS. MARINERS IN THE
HURRICANE WATCH AREA SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT.
...LOCAL FLOOD IMPACTS...
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BEGIN LATE THURSDAY WITH TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES
POSSIBLE AND ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 10 INCHES. THIS WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF
POORLY DRAINED AREAS.
...LOCAL TORNADO IMPACTS...
THERE IS A RISK OF TORNADOES IN THE OUTER RAINBANDS OF CHARLEY WHICH
MIGHT BEGIN AFFECTING THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST AND INTERIOR SOUTH FLORIDA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING.
...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT CONCERNING THE IMPACT OF HURRICANE CHARLEY WILL BE
ISSUED AROUND MIDNIGHT.
$$
LUSHINE
I'm in Lake County, and it looks like the eye is going to pass close to me.
I'm not too concerned about flooding here since I'm on a hill, but I still remember the strength that Opal had 200 miles inland a few years ago.
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BONNIE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 15A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
7 PM CDT WED AUG 11 2004
...BONNIE MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA FROM DESTIN EASTWARD TO THE MOUTH
OF THE SUWANNEE RIVER.
A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM WEST OF DESTIN WESTWARD TO THE
ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER.
AT 7 PM CDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BONNIE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.7 WEST OR ABOUT
140 MILES SOUTH OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THIS IS ALSO
ABOUT 295 MILES SOUTHWEST OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA.
BONNIE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 12 MPH. THIS GENERAL
MOTION...WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...BONNIE IS
EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA
THURSDAY MORNING.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND BONNIE COULD
BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TONIGHT OR THURSDAY MORNING. AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING
BONNIE.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES FROM THE
CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES...WITH
ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS...CAN BE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH
BONNIE.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY MORNING OVER THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
REPEATING THE 7 PM CDT POSITION...27.1 N... 88.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
10 PM CDT.
FORECASTER BEVEN
Why the mods are choosing to not keep this in breaking is disturbing.
The path of this storm has changed radically since 48 hours ago, and it will be here Friday.
Folks need to prepare tonight for it if not already prepared.
Coastal areas could be without power for a week or two.
I don't expect Charley to change too much from their current path projections. I am in Brevard right now and basically the program I am using based on the GOES models are pretty much putting Charley at a CAT 1-CAT 2 storm hitting the SW Florida coast NNE around 4 AM Saturday morning and crossing the state. I would expect something like 60-80 mph winds around here and in the Orlando area.
The key is...does the storm slow down and pound for hours..or does it move fast and furious and out of here in 6-8 hrs?
Also, back to your original point...110 mph winds coming in the Tampa Bay area...forget about it...flooding like they have not seen in decades there as well as the areas of Ft.Myers,Naples,and Bonita.
So they moved in out to Saturday morning? The models I saw showed it coming across Friday afternoon/evening.
They seem to think the storm will slow down while making the turn north and northeast...pushing it back 6-8 hrs
Well, wouldn't you know it, we had planned a four day weekend birthday party out in the Gulf. Now, it's securing the area, making sure the stores are full, and monitoring this thread. Sheesh.
5.56mm
;^)
5.56mm
BULLETIN
HURRICANE CHARLEY ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT WED AUG 11 2004
...CHARLEY HEADING FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING PROVINCES OF
WESTERN CUBA...PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...
MATANZAS...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH. THIS WATCH WILL PROBABLY BE
CHANGED TO A HURRICANE WARNING EARLY THURSDAY.
AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED
NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA TO ANNA MARIA ISLAND.
A HURRICANE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM DRY
TORTUGAS TO OCEAN REEF INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY...AND FROM FLAMINGO
NORTHWARD TO ANNA MARIA ISLAND. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS. A HURRICANE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR A
PORTION OF THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF FLORIDA
EARLY THURSDAY.
AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CHARLEY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.7 WEST OR ABOUT 195 MILES
...310 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN.
CHARLEY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR.
ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE WILL BE PASSING NEAR OR
OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS ON THURSDAY. RAIN BANDS WITH TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS IN SQUALLS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT MUCH OF JAMAICA
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO
SPREAD OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS EARLY THURSDAY.
DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT CHARLEY HAS NOT
STRENGTHEN AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 75 MPH...120
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE
FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES... 45 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 115 MILES...185 KM.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS
993 MB...29.32 INCHES.
ABOVE NORMAL TIDES...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING
WAVES...ARE LIKELY ALONG THE COASTS OF JAMAICA TONIGHT...AND THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE LIKELY IN ASSOCIATION WITH
CHARLEY. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUD SLIDES.
REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...17.8 N... 78.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 993 MB.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 2 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM
EDT.
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