Posted on 08/10/2004 9:21:57 AM PDT by Jomini
World oil prices have set fresh record highs as violence in Iraq disrupts exports, underlining concerns over acutely stretched global energy supplies.
U.S. light crude touched $45.04 a barrel on Tuesday, a record in the 21-year history of crude futures trade on the New York Mercantile Exchange. In afternoon trade, U.S. crude was off six cents on the day at $44.72 and London Brent crude was down 11 cents at $41.45 a barrel.
On Monday, saboteurs loyal to radical cleric Moqtada al-Sadr blew up the main 48-inch pipeline that runs from Iraq's southern oilfields to its offshore Basra and Khor al-Amaya terminals in the Gulf.
A second smaller pipeline was closed as a precaution, although shipments continued from storage and an official from the South Oil Company said supplies should resume along both pipelines on Wednesday.
"The prospect of a cessation of Iraqi exports from the country's southern ports for a prolonged period would almost certainly be enough to push oil prices above $50 a barrel since there is not enough spare capacity to cover the 1.7-1.9m bpd of oil exported from Basra," analysts at Barclays Capital said.
Oil prices have climbed more than 30 percent so far this year for fear that supply may not cope with the fastest demand growth in more than two decades. Demand has remained buoyant in China and the United States, despite high prices.
"The world has one of the smallest cushions ever for absorbing a loss of supply while demand growth is the strongest in a generation," said Daniel Yergin, chairman of U.S. consultancy Cambridge Energy Research Associates. "These conditions mean the world oil market is even tighter than in 1973 oil crisis."
In real terms, stripping out inflation, oil prices remain much lower than the highs of 1979 during the Iranian revolution when crude averaged $80 a barrel in today's money.
World oil producers hold very little spare capacity. The OPEC cartel is pumping about 30 million barrels daily, volumes not seen since 1979.
Another source of anxiety is Russia's largest oil company YUKOS, battling bankruptcy. Russian bailiffs on Monday seized the main YUKOS production unit Yuganskneftegaz for the second time, a move interpreted as a sign of the state's resolve to dismantle the oil company.
Justice Ministry officials, collecting a $3.4-billion-tax debt for 2000, said late on Monday they had frozen shares in the oil-producing subsidiary despite a court decision on Friday ruling that an earlier seizure of the unit was illegal.
In the United States, small volumes of production were closed in the U.S. Gulf as a precaution against damage from Tropical Storm Bonnie.
The enemy has been successful in expanding the battlefield. All the cruise missiles and MBT in existence are useless against this type of attack. Should oil prices breach the $50 plateau in the coming weeks then an unpleasant result should be anticipated in November.
J
"NO WAR FOR OIL!".....well, at least that cry of the left has been drowned out.
I don't understand why, only 15% of our oil comes from Saudi/mid East. Ours mostly comes from Mexico and South America.
and the white house says and does nothing about it. in fact, we are still adding to the strategic petroleum reserve at $45 a bbl.
Dow is up 70 points...
If the pols are that worried about the price of gas, there is something they could actually do right away: drop fed, state, and/or local taxes. Which makes a flock of a lot more sense than tapping the SPR, BTW, something that twit, Sen. Schumer suggested a while back.
These oil prices now have a running start -- momentum that can be driven efficiently each day by what seem as diverse and uncoordinated events. Each trading day in August has set a new record as the bases are loaded for what the opposition hopes is a walk-off Grand Slam.
A successful terrorist strike on US or British refining interests could send oil to 75-90 dollars a barrel. That would collapse the western economic structure just before the election in November and hand the opposition the John Kerry presidency they desire.
Time to move in the infield and bring in the knuckleballer. Time to let those speculators driving the oil prices get the Hunt brothers' treatment. Then like Mr Nixon in 1972, president Bush can lay a number on the northern liberal who wants to surrender America to the enemy...
J
Funny... all the major networks are now blaming what is going on in Iraq for the high prices... it was actually the Yukos crap going on in Russia that got the prices so high to begin with... but there was hardly a whisper about that. Now that it can be blamed on Iraq, the networks are making it a point to tell everyone, again... and again... and again...
I'm not getting the metaphor. How would you "move in the infield and bring in the knuckleballer?"
Oil prices are dropping according to Drudge.
I love expensive oil, ping.
We are not paying anywhere near $45 for the oil going into the reserves. $45 is a spot market price today. The SPR is being filled with oil from long term contracts signed a long time before this price surge.
Oh yes, please have others keep paying my state taxes.
You seem confused about the relationship between crude and refineries. Reducing refining capabilities reduces the demand for crude which would drop it's price.
new contracts to fill it:
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1186613/posts
You guys have a sweet deal.
Plus a major quantity from Canada.
They've done that here in FL. Right now they have dropped state taxes by !0 cents a gallon I believe and we are now hovering at around $1.74 per gallon here. Not bad when you consider prices elsewhere.
oops 10 cents
Don't be impertinent!
Read and enjoy!
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.