Posted on 08/10/2004 5:56:46 AM PDT by kjfpolitical
As the Aug. 31 primary approaches, candidates will jostle for undecided voters in television ads. TALLAHASSEE - As the Republican U.S. Senate candidates prepare for their first statewide TV debate tonight, they are plotting a much bigger strategy: a barrage of TV ads aimed at deciding the outcome three weeks from today.
"This is it, right here. The ballgame," says Richard Pinsky, an adviser to candidate Doug Gallagher.
With polls showing more than a third of likely voters undecided, the outcome of the Aug. 31 primary could turn on which candidate is on TV the most with the most appealing pitch at a time when many TV sets are tuned to the Olympic games.
Mel Martinez, who has consistently placed second in polls, has reserved $2-million in TV ads over the next three weeks, including $1.3-million in the week leading up to the primary.
Bill McCollum, who has been the front-running Republican since the race began but whose once commanding lead has narrowed, bought nearly $500,000 in ads during that same period. McCollum entered the race with higher name recognition and has outspent Martinez in the Republican-heavy TV markets of Fort Myers and Jacksonville.
Gallagher, a Coral Gables businessman who has funded his campaign with $3.6-million of his own money, has not made advance TV ad buys. His personal checks to his campaign have diminished over the past few weeks, with the most recent installment of about $249,000 last weekend.
A fourth candidate, outgoing House Speaker Johnnie Byrd, R-Plant City, is advertising on radio only. Campaign manager Wayne Garcia said Byrd will buy some broadcast TV time.
McCollum, Martinez, Gallagher and Byrd will meet at 7 tonight in Orlando for an hourlong debate on Florida NBC affiliates.
Martinez's campaign said the figures cited were accurate, but McCollum's camp said the numbers are too low and do not accurately reflect his strategy.
Martinez already bought the bulk of his air time, while McCollum buys more of his time weekly.
"You're raising and spending," said McCollum's spokeswoman, Shannon Gravitte.
Through June, the most recent data available, Martinez and McCollum were about even in money raised. But reports showed Martinez had about $800,000 more on hand than McCollum.
To reach a comparable audience costs far more in Miami than in Tampa or Orlando. Nearly half the expected primary vote is in the Tampa Bay and Orlando markets.
Martinez's TV ad emphasizes his White House ties as President Bush's former housing secretary.
"We want to be sure that before Republican voters walk in the polls on Election Day, that they know he was a member of the president's Cabinet," said Martinez's spokeswoman, Jennifer Coxe.
The Democrats have not purchased much TV time in the Tampa Bay or Miami-Fort Lauderdale markets because those are the homes of the three rivals: Betty Castor of Tampa, Peter Deutsch of Hollywood and Alex Penelas of Miami.
Most of their TV ads have been concentrated in North Florida, home to about a fourth of Democratic primary voters.
Penelas, running third in polls and fundraising, will air ads statewide this week, touting his new stance that U.S. troops leave Iraq by the end of 2005.
Deutsch, a congressman from Hollywood, has spent more than $850,000 in the past two weeks statewide and likely will increase his media buys in the next three weeks. He has the most money on hand of any candidate in the race from either party: $4.2-million on June 30.
Castor has not run ads statewide. She reported $2.2-million in the bank June 30.
EMILY's List, a national fundraising group that supports Democratic women who favor abortion rights, also began airing TV ads for Castor a week ago. The group is spending $800,000 for two weeks - far more than Castor herself.
Martinez versus Deutsch = Martinez.
If the rats had any sense they'd nominate Penelas, but they don't and won't.
What are the latest poll numbers down there?
Research 2000, July 15-19, +-5% McCollum 27 Martinez 21 Doug Gallagher 16 Byrd 7 Klayman 2 Saull 1 March 1 Kogut - Undecided 25 Mason-Dixon, July 19-21, +-5% McCollum 29 Martinez 24 Byrd 7 Doug Gallagher 5 KLAYMAN 2 March/Saull/Kogut 1 each Undecided 30
I have a prediction on this race floating around FR somewhere. I picked something like Martinez 45 McCollum 25 Byrd/Gallagher 12.
General Election Matchups in Mason Dixon Poll:
CASTOR (D) 44%
MCCOLLUM (R) 39%
UNDECIDED 17%
MARTINEZ (R) 39%
CASTOR 39%
UNDECIDED 22%
DEUTSCH (D) 38%
MCCOLLUM 36%
UNDECIDED 26%
MARTINEZ (R) 41%
DEUTSCH 39%
UNDECIDED 20%
MARTINEZ 40%
PENELAS (D) 32%
UNDECIDED 28%
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