The storm sounds like it is bouncing off the coast and the jet stream - that make sense?
Once a storm gets this big it can do what it wants in regards to track. I think it is indeed following the warm water off the Gulf Coast at this time. Steering currents are still mainly from the south right now and should allow it to basically move north. It's so close to the coast that any small deviations will mean quick landfall.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/archive/wg8dlm3-1.GIF
I'm not sure what that Bay north of FT. Myers is, but that area is going to be very badly hit. The surge with this thing is already causing lots of problems along the West Coast.
It's really a shame that no one was apying much attention to this storm a few days ago, it had biggy written all over it from the start.
I guess the hope now is that it will find the least populated region to hit. That said, it's giving a good area a pretty strong hit. The saving grace is the fact that the area of strongest winds is pretty small.
