Electoral College Breakdown 2004, August 4th Update

ECB2004 ^ | 8-4-04

[Dales]

I apologize for the delay in posting this to FR. I meant to do so on Thursday, but ran into some bandwidth issues on my site, got sidetracked, and plum forgot. :-/

[Dales]

Sorry for the lateness of it this week ping. The article was actually up on Wednesday, but I did not get it posted here until now.

[Neets]

Ciao bello!

[COEXERJ145]

As long as ARG polls are included, Kerry will always have an advantage.

[swilhelm73]

"Everyone and his sister has heard time and again that no Republican has won the White House without winning Ohio. Well, there's a less-heralded factoid that no Democrat has won the White House without winning a certain state. Do you happen to know which state that is?"

I'll take a wild guess...Ohio?

[ElkGroveDan]

Well, there's a less-heralded factoid that no Democrat has won the White House without winning a certain state. Do you happen to know which state that is?

The State of Confusion?

[Constitution1st]

Ohio is not a toss-up; it is definite for Bush, with Bush having a 7 point lead over kerry.

The dims are working overtime to make the people believe that it is close between kerry and Bush, so they can attempt massive vote fraud. But, it is not anywhere near close. Just like this example of calling Ohio a toss-up.

[motife]

Bush will get 206 electoral for sure from 24 states. Kerry, 205 from 15, plus D.C.

States in doubt :

Leaning Bush :

Missouri 11, Ohio 20, Florida 27, Nevada 5, W.Va. 5

would give Bush 274 from 29 states

Leaning Kerry :

Pennsylvania 21, Minnesota 10, Oregon 7, New Hampshire 4, Iowa 7, Wisconsin 10

would give Kerry 264 votes from 21 states plus D.C.

[swilhelm73]

The dims are working overtime to make the people believe that it is close between kerry and Bush, so they can attempt massive vote fraud

I think the other element is that lefties will vote Nader or stay home if they think it isn't even close.

One could see quite a cascade effect if he falls well behind Bush in the polls in the homestretch. Lefties are voting Kerry not because they like the self confessed war criminal, but because they hate Bush and think Kerry is electable after all.

[Constitution1st]

Yes, I do live in Ohio, and "Progressive" is just another name for communist.

[Wallaby]

"Everyone and his sister has heard time and again that no Republican has won the White House without winning Ohio. Well, there's a less-heralded factoid that no Democrat has won the White House without winning a certain state. Do you happen to know which state that is?"

Missouri

[Constitution1st]

Rush has predicted that the kerry campaign is going to implode, and I don't see how they can avoid it; what a major loser!

The leftists that actually hate Bush number about 18-25%; they won't hold a candle to those who will be voting for Bush.

I sense a landslide victory, that the left will lie about, and try to prevent by the vote fraud I mentioned above. It's high time to be an observer at your place of voting to watch for the fraud.

[gilliam]

Thank you for all your hard work.

[beyond the sea]

This means nothing until after a debate or two.

Totally meaningless......... like batting averages in spring training!

[Vigilanteman]

If the election were held today and GWB won all the leaning Bush and all the toss-up states, he would still be one EV short of a clear majority at 269.
If both candidates win the same states they won in 2000 except that NH and WV flip to the Democrats, then we still have a 269-269 tie.

And finally, if my uncle had been plumbed a little bit differently, he might have been my auntie.

[gitmo]

Rush has predicted that the kerry campaign is going to implode, and I don't see how they can avoid it; what a major loser!

I thought the same thing about Clinton in 92, Clinton in 96 and Gore in 2000.

[nwrep]

Rush has predicted that the kerry campaign is going to implode, and I don't see how they can avoid it; what a major loser!

You are correct. Rush is a major loser!!

[MrChips]

MMMmmmmmm. With the 3 slight leaners and the 3 tossups, Bush wins in the House of Rep. with 269. But I think he will win 2 or more of those slight leaners toward Kerry, too.

[Citizen of the Savage Nation]

As long as ARG polls are included, Kerry will always have an advantage.

As I asked on another thread, has ARG come out with a poll, this year, that had Bush ahead in *any* state? They are that ridiculous.

The ugly polls that I knew were coming after demcon are now here. The problem we have in trying to follow the national picture is that almost all of these polls are coming from ARG, Rasmussen, and SUSA. ARG as usual, is undergoing Operation Pull These Numbers Out of Our Asses, one gets the feeling that they have Kerry winning 538-0.

The problem with Rasmussen's polls, besides the fact that trained monkeys could throw darts at the electoral map and pick winners better than he did in '00 (ditto for ARG, and Zogby in '02), is the huge approval gaps for Bush that show up in his polls. Bush is going to win any state that he is polling 51% or higher come election day, almost guaranteed, and that fact alone will dramatically alter his electoral map.

Lastly, SUSA has come out with some real clunkers after demcon, right on cue. The MO primary gave us our best clue as to how they are doing; they had Holden up by 1% but he lost by 6%. They blew that poll, MOE be damned. Also, in the SC primary, while they had DeMint winning, as I recall, they only had him winning by half the margin he did, something like 8 pts off. If you are missing polls by 6-8% and clinging to the 'well its still in the 2xMOE' excuse, bottomline, you suck.

If my prediction is right, though, this will be Kerry's highpoint and the polls will regress back to the mean in the next few weeks prior to repcon. On a related note, it is interesting that Bush has gained ground in the Iowa and SportsTrader markets, which is probably a better indicator then all these crappy polls. We'll see.

[COEXERJ145]

As I asked on another thread, has ARG come out with a poll, this year, that had Bush ahead in *any* state?

I'm waiting for the ARG poll of Texas that shows it to be Kerry-57% Bush-25% Nader-15%.