Electoral College Breakdown 2004, August 4th Update

ECB2004 ^ | 8-4-04

[Dales]

I Wouldn't Touch It With a 10 Foot Poll

The Kerry/Edwards Bounce Redux

Every week, Ruy Teixeira of the Center for American Progress pens a column titled "Public Opinion Watch". His latest effort focuses in on the polls released following the Democratic National Convention. Mr. Teixeira examines several polls and concludes "arguably, Kerry got a substantial bounce where he needed it most".

He begins well, by rightly chastising Newsweek for rushing out a poll to measure Kerry's convention bounce without waiting until after Kerry's speech to begin their polling. That was shoddy journalism, presumably done merely to try to get in front of the news. But Mr. Teixeira then goes on to try to say that they were not in a position to measure the bounce at all, saying "the previous poll they use as a point of comparison is way too long ago (July 8-9) to be a real before/after comparison." He argues that perhaps the race had tightened between July 8-9 and the start of the convention, so that there could be an extra few bounce points hidden. He uses as evidence the fact that Gallup showed the race as Kerry 51, Bush 44 on July 8-11 but only 49-45 on July 19-21. He goes so far to say, "in fact, that [the race tightened] appears to be the case." (He later makes the same complaint about the CBS poll that showed little movement). The problem is that each of those Gallup polls had a margin of error of +/- 4%. A Sociology Ph.D. should know better than to assume that such a change is indicative of true movement (and while Mr. Teixeira here treats Gallup's numbers as conclusive, they get a different treatment later). Several organizations had polls taken in early July and then again just prior to the Democratic convention. ABC and IBD showed statistically insignificant movement towards Bush (2 points in each). CBS showed no movement at all. Rasmussen's seven-day tracking poll showed 2 points of movement towards Kerry. There is no evidence to support the notion that there was a substantial hidden bounce caused by Newsweek's "before" poll being a few weeks earlier.

Gallup was next. Mr. Teixeira states "less of a bounce than that measured by Newsweek." Since Gallup actually showed a negative bounce (namely, that Mr. Bush gained ground), that is quite an understatement. "Apparently, there was something about that Saturday when Gallup polled," he writes, stating that he finds it hard to think of a good reason why a bounce should be so short. Gallup then extended the poll another day, and found that the additional day's data showed even more movement towards the President.

Actually, there is a straightforward reason, and it is the same reason that flash polls taken immediately after an event are notoriously inaccurate and misleading. When one conducts a poll, one is trying to get a measure of the population (or a specific subset of the population, such as registered voters or likely voters). Immediately after an event such as a convention, the decline rate (the percentage of those contacted who refuse to participate) among those who watched the event and want to talk about it drops markedly. The sample ends up having those who watched being over-represented, even if party identification is controlled or stratified. Any time a sample becomes distinctly different than the population supposedly being measured, there will be a loss of accuracy. It does not take long for people to return to their normal patterns of behavior. While the partial samples collected by Newsweek and by Gallup on Friday may indeed have been very good for Mr. Kerry, it could very well be that the samples were less representative than usual (and that is not even getting into the fact that the margin of error on the one night samples would be quite a bit larger than the complete poll results).

The poll Mr. Teixeira favors for determining the bounce Kerry received is the ABC News/ Washington Post poll. The pre-convention iteration showed Bush leading 49-48 among registered voters. After the convention, Kerry led 52-45. Teixeira writes, "This bounce is modest by historical standards but is certainly more substantial than that suggested by other polls, particularly the rather peculiar Gallup poll. And note especially the failure of the Gallup poll to detect a Kerry lead at all: the Washington Post poll has Kerry ahead by 7 points and CBS News by 6 points on the exact same survey dates; the Newsweek poll has earlier survey dates and has Kerry ahead by 8 points. The Gallup poll is truly an outlier among these major polls."

The selectivity in what is given credence is nothing short of breathtaking. Gallup should be ignored, because it does not show what the others showed? But ABC News/Washington Post should not be ignored, despite it showing something that the others did not? Further, other polls conducted immediately after the Convention do not show the same thing as Newsweek, CBS, and the Washington Post. Marist has the race tied. American Research Group has Kerry with a three-point lead. Rasmussen has the race tied. While it may be accurate to say that the Gallup poll is "truly an outlier among these major polls" when speaking about the four that Teixeira was talking about, it is deceptive since those were not the only available major polls to consider.

All of this strikes me as silly anyway. Historically, the bounce a challenger gets comes from two events that run together- the naming of his running mate and the convention. Mr. Kerry made the strategic choice to put some time in between the two; possibly he hoped for two bounces to build on each other. With this in mind, the best time to look for a bounce would be from just before Kerry named John Edwards compared to after the convention.

Poll	"Before" Date	"Before" Result	"After" Date	"After" Result	Bounce
ABC News/Washington Post (RV)	6/17-20/04	K48-B44	7/30-8/1/04	K50-B44	+2
American Research Group (RV)	7/1-3/04	K49-B45	7/30-8/1/04	K49-B46	-1
CNN/USAToday/Gallup (RV)	6/21-23/04	B49-K48	7/30-8/1/04	B48-K48	+1
Rasmussen (LV)	6/25-7/1/04	B45.6-K45.5	7/26-8/1	K47.7-B45.3	+2.5

These polls show the same thing- that there was a miniscule change in the race in the aftermath of the naming of John Edwards and the Democratic National Convention. There are a few more polls we can look at that that are not optimal. Newsweek, CBS and Marist did not have a poll taken just before the announcement of Edwards, and Newsweek did half of its poll before Kerry's speech and half on the day after (which invites the problems detailed above). Despite those problems, they show results similar to the above.

CBS News (RV)	5/20-23/04	K50-B40	7/30-8/1/04	K49-B43	-4
Marist (RV)	4/24-26/04	B47-K44	7/30-8/2/04	K47-B46	+4
Newsweek	5/13-14/04	K43-B42	7/29-30/04	K49-B42	+6

Clearly, this is a very low bounce, and not just "modest by historical standards."

Mr. Teixeira then argues that Kerry got did get a bounce, only a different one. "It's not the bounce from the convention that's important (and certainly not its exact size, which I suspect will be rather modest), but rather the extent to which Kerry has set himself for a successful fall campaign." He lists a number of issues and characteristics questions from the two most favorable polls to Kerry (the CBS News and the ABC News/Washington Post polls) to demonstrate the strength of Kerry's position. But when compared to similar polls conducted by those organizations after the 2000 Democratic National Convention, Mr. Kerry lags behind Mr. Gore in some key areas.

Poll	Question	2000 Result	2004 Result
CBS	Does (Gore/Kerry) say what he really believes or does he say what he thinks people want to hear?	44% what he believes, 50% what people want	35% what he believes, 57% what people want.
CBS	Do you have confidence in (Gore/Kerry)'s ability to deal wisely with an international crisis, or are you uneasy about his approach?	50% confident, 40% uneasy	39% confident, 50% uneasy
CBS	Did what you saw of the convention affect your opinion of (Gore/Kerry)? If yes, did it make you think better or worse of him?	No change: 62%, Better: 30%, Worse: 4%	No change: 53%, Better 35%, Worse 11%
CBS	Is your opinion of (Gore/Kerry) favorable or unfavorable?	45% Favorable, 27% Unfavorable	39% Favorable, 33% Unfavorable
ABC	Is (Gore/Kerry) a strong leader?	56% yes, 39% no	46% yes, 52% no
ABC	Does (Gore/Kerry) understand the problems of people like you?	62% yes, 33% no	52% yes, 45% no

Where Mr. Kerry does stack up well with Mr. Gore is on issue questions. It is worth noting, however, that Mr. Gore's advantages on these were after the Republican convention (since it was before the Democratic one), and it is possible that Mr. Kerry's leads among them will erode after it. In either case, it shows that an August, post-convention advantage on generic polling issue questions is not a guarantee of electoral success, especially when the other party has yet to get their turn at the plate.

Where Mr. Kerry has had a bit of a bounce is in the electoral count. Heading into July, he had a slim 12 electoral vote lead in the Electoral College Breakdown. He has expanded it to 37. Mr. Teixeira, that is where he needed it most. And in the month of September we will find out if this is a zenith for him or if it was just the beginning.

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This Week's Polling Updates Overview

The article above talks about the recent polls and also touches on all of the battleground states.

The scoreboard:

	Result	With Tossups
ECB	Kerry 224, Bush 187	Kerry 269, Bush 233
ECB Classic	Kerry 239, Bush 184	Kerry 299, Bush 217
ECB Classic Sans Zogby Interactive	Kerry 244, Bush 166	Kerry 310, Bush 228
Calculated National Result	Kerry 47.1%, Bush 45.3%

For the trends, the changes in each are as follows:

ECB	Kerry +15, Bush -13	Kerry Unch., Bush Unch
ECB Classic	Kerry +25, Bush -18	Kerry -10, Bush +32
ECB Classic Sans Zogby Interactive	Kerry +30, Bush -29	Kerry -36, Bush +36
Calculated National Result	Kerry +1.3%, Bush -0.5%

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	West Virginia
	Electoral Votes: 5
	2000 Result
	Bush 52%
	Gore 46%

Background: It was a huge change from the past when Bush beat Gore here in 2000. Over the last eighteen elections, the Democrats have won 14, and both of Clinton's wins would almost certainly have come even without Ross Perot. This is not a state the Democrats should have lost.

In the first ECB of 2000, West Virginia was rated as a battleground state with a slight advantage to Bush. This time around, it is starting as a complete tossup. Two of West Virginia's three Representatives are Democrats. Democrats control everything else: both Senate seats, both chambers of the state legislature, and the top executive branch offices. It is easy to see why, when 60% of the registered voters are Democrats and just 29% Republican.

Polling Data:

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican		Democrat		Margin
3/24/04	American Research Group	Link	600 LV, Nader not an option	4%	Bush	47%	Kerry	46%	Bush +1
3/24/04	American Research Group	Link	600 LV, Nader an option	4%	Bush	46%	Kerry	46%	Push
4/15/04	Rasmussen	Link	500 LV	4.5%	Bush	46%	Kerry	41%	Bush +5
4/29/04	Ipsos Public Affairs	Link	984 RV	3%	Bush	49%	Kerry	45%	Bush +4
5/28/04	Mason-Dixon**	Link	625 LV	4%	Bush	41%	Kerry	47%	Kerry +6
6/17/04	American Research Group	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	44%	Kerry	47%	Kerry +3
7/28/04	American Research Group	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	44%	Kerry	47%	Kerry +3

** May 28 Mason-Dixon poll was for an "unspecified private client". Odds are this means it was for a particular party or candidate or PAC, which would have control over the script and other facets of the methodology. Caveat lector. Punditry: Absolutely no change from the last American Research Group WV survey, and the state remains a Slight Advantage for Kerry. There is no approval gap here; Bush's support level is exactly the same as his approval rating. Bush is getting almost 20% of Democrat voters, but in a state that has such an overwhelming edge for the Democrats in registration that is not enough (Democrats make up 58% of the sample compared to 33% Republicans).

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	Alabama
	Electoral Votes: 9
	2000 Result
	Bush 56%
	Gore 42%

Background: Alabama has been a reliable GOP state, only straying twice since 1960; both times it went for a southerner. Jimmy Carter carried the state, as did George Wallace.

Polling Data:

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican		Democrat		Margin
4/27/03	USA Polling Group	Link	RV	5%	Bush	60%	Unnamed Democrat	30	Bush +30
3/18/04	USA Polling Group	Link	405 adults	5%	Bush	59%	Kerry	27%	Bush +32
5/3/04	SurveyUSA	Link	743 LV	3.7%	Bush	55%	Kerry	36%	Bush +19
5/13/04	USA Polling Group	Link	400 Adults	5%	Bush	55%	Kerry	33%	Bush +22
5/20/04	Capital Survey Research	Link	785 RV	4%	Bush	56%	Kerry	37%	Bush +19
5/31/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	5%	Bush	57%	Kerry	36%	Bush +21
6/30/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	5%	Bush	52%	Kerry	38%	Bush +14
7/28/04	Capital Research Center	Link	590 LV	5%	Bush	56%	Kerry	34%	Bush +22

Punditry: Safe for Bush. I guess we need a few more Alabama polls, just to be sure, before we can get any results for states like Delaware. Or Hawaii even.

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	Massachusetts
	Electoral Votes: 12
	2000 Result
	Gore 60%
	Bush 33%

Background: They like them liberal in Massachusetts. Reagan did carry the state twice (barely), and Ike took it twice, but that's about it since 1924. Most of the time it has not been very close at all.

Polling Data:

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican		Democrat		Margin
1/03	Mass. Insight	Link	457 Voters	4%	Bush	37%	Kerry	53%	Kerry +16
4/03	Mass. Insight	Link	457 Voters	4%	Bush	49%	Kerry	43%	Bush +6
12/03	KRC Communications Research	Link	RV	4%	Bush	38%	Kerry	56%	Kerry +18
4/5/04	University of Massachusetts	Link	400 RV	5%	Bush	32%	Kerry	54%	Kerry +22
5/31/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	5%	Bush	33%	Kerry	58%	Kerry +25
6/30/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	5%	Bush	31%	Kerry	60%	Kerry +29
7/18/04	Suffolk University	Link	400 RV	5%	Bush	30%	Kerry	59%	Kerry +29
7/28/04	Merrimack University	Link	601 LV	4%	Bush	30%	Kerry	56%	Kerry +26

Punditry: Safe for Kerry. If we are going to have lots of Alabama polls, we may as well have lots of Massachusetts polls. One can never be too sure, after all.

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	F		Virginia
			Electoral Votes: 13
			2000 Result
			Bush 52%
			Gore 44%

Background: The Democrats have won here just once since Truman- when Johnson beat Goldwater. Despite the result dominance, the margins have been fairly competitive more times than not.

Polling Data:

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican		Democrat		Margin
12/3/03	Mason-Dixon	Link	LV	4%	Bush	48%	Clark	33%	Bush +15
5/31/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	5%	Bush	47%	Kerry	45%	Bush +2
6/30/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	4%	Bush	48%	Kerry	45%	Bush +3
7/8/04	SurveyUSA	Link	686 LV	4%	Bush	50%	Kerry	45%	Bush +5
7/31/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	4%	Bush	49%	Kerry	46%	Bush +3

Punditry: Rasmussen's Virginia polling has been very consistent in showing a Slight Advantage for Bush, and while SurveyUSA had a bigger margin, it was not by much. As such, the tighter designation is probably prudent at this juncture. Bush's approval gap, according to Rasmussen, is 4 points in Virginia.

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	Arizona
	Electoral Votes: 10
	2000 Result
	Bush 51%
	Gore 45%

Background: Since Harry Truman, only Bill Clinton (during his re-elect) has carried the Grand Canyon State for the Democrats. Clinton also made it close with the help of Perot in 1992. Other than that, things have been surprisingly one-sided. Arizona has 6 of 8 of its Representatives and both of its Senators from the GOP. The GOP also controls both chambers of the state legislature. The top of the executive branch is run by Democrats, with Janet Napolitano being a first term Governor and Terry Goddard being the Attorney General. Most other top executive offices are held by Republicans. Republicans have a 41% to 35% lead in voter registration.

Polling Data:

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican		Democrat		Margin
7/18/03	Behavior Research Center	Link	701 Adults	4.3%	Bush	55%	Unnamed Opponent	41%	Bush +14
1/11/04	Behavior Research Center	Link	641 Adults	3.9%	Bush	50%	Highest Ranking Democrat (Dean)	38%	Bush +12
2/19/04	SurveyUSA	Link	RV	4.3%	Bush	52%	Kerry	44%	Bush +8
2/22/04	Arizona State University	Link	430 RV	4%	Bush	44%	Kerry	46%	Dem +2
3/18/04	Survey USA	Link	634 LV	4.0%	Bush	51%	Kerry	42%	Bush +9
4/26/04	Arizona State University	Link	410 RV	5%	Bush	41%	Kerry	38%	Bush +3
5/4/04	Behavior Research Center	Link	555 RV, Nader not an option	4%	Bush	46%	Kerry	42%	Bush +4
			555 RV, Nader an option	4%	Bush	45%	Kerry	37%	Bush +8
5/23/04	Arizona State University	Link	377 RV	5%	Bush	43%	Kerry	38%	Bush +5
6/13/04	Market Solutions	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	44%	Kerry	41%	Bush +3
6/27/04	Arizona State University	Link	400 RV	5%	Bush	47%	Kerry	35%	Bush +12
7/7/04	Behavior Research Center	Link	RV	5%	Bush	48%	Kerry	36%	Bush +12
7/14/04	Survey USA	Link	767 LV	4%	Bush	53%	Kerry	41%	Bush +12
7/18/04	Arizona State University	Link	400 RV	5%	Bush	41%	Kerry	42%	Kerry +1
8/1/04	Market Solutions	Link	601 LV	4%	Bush	48%	Kerry	45%	Bush +3

Punditry: The polling in Arizona is certainly interesting. Market Solutions' poll for the Arizona Republic has no change in the margin from their June poll, and is not that much different than the most recent Arizona State University poll, but is markedly different than the SurveyUSA, Behavior Research, and the earlier Arizona State University polls. I am leaving Arizona as Leaning Towards Bush, but it bears watching to see what subsequent polls show. The poll writeup contained no specifics as to the polls' internals.

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	North Carolina
	Electoral Votes: 15
	2000 Result
	Bush 56%
	Gore 43%

Background: Since Lyndon Johnson's win here, only once have the Democrats taken Tar Heel electors. That's a bit deceptive, however, as many times it was extremely close. Carter lost to Reagan here by only two points in that nationwide blowout. Clinton lost two elections by a combined total of 5%. Yet the Clinton losses are also deceptive, in that the margins would have been considerably larger without Perot and his charts. Simply stated, like much of the south North Carolina votes Republican for President, although a southerner atop the ticket can make things interesting; not always though, as Al Gore demonstrated.

Polling Data:

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican		Democrat		Margin
9/16/03	Research2000	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	51%	Edwards	40%	Bush +11
11/15/03	Research2000	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	54%	Edwards	42%	Bush +12
11/25/03	Survey USA	Link	563 RV	4.2%	Bush	53%	Kerry	39%	Bush +14
11/25/03	Survey USA	Link	563 RV	4.2%	Bush	52%	Edwards	45%	Bush +7
2/26/04	Survey USA	Link	654 RV	3.9%	Bush	53%	Kerry	42%	Bush +11
3/11/04	Rasmussen	Link	400 LV	3%	Bush	51%	Kerry	43%	Bush +8
4/1/04	Bennett, Petts and Blumenthal (D)	No Link	LV	4%	Bush	51%	Kerry	44%	Bush +7
5/12/04	Mason-Dixon	Link	LV	4%	Bush	48%	Kerry	41%	Bush +7
5/31/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	5%	Bush	48%	Kerry	44%	Bush +4
6/16/04	Research2000	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	47%	Kerry	42%	Bush +5
6/30/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	5%	Bush	49%	Kerry	42%	Bush +7
7/12/04	Gallup	Link	680 LV	5%	Bush	56%	Kerry	41%	Bush +15
7/12/04	Mason-Dixon	Link	LV	4%	Bush	48%	Kerry	45%	Bush +3
7/14/04	Research2000	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	49%	Kerry	44%	Bush +5
7/26/04	SurveyUSA	Link	906 LV	3%	Bush	51%	Kerry	44%	Bush +7
7/31/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	5%	Bush	50%	Kerry	45%	Bush +5

Punditry: Still Leaning Towards Bush, with there only being a very slight change from June, despite the naming of John Edwards as Kerry's running mate. In North Carolina, Bush's approval gap is 7%.

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	California
	Electoral Votes: 55
	2000 Result
	Gore 53%
	Bush 42%

Background: On a three election streak for the Democrats, California has a reputation as a liberal bastion. While Gore did handle Bush easily in 2000, the fact is that the reputation may not fit the data on the Presidential level. Only three candidates have broken 53% in California since the 1964 landslide. Al Gore last time, homestate icon Ronald Reagan in his re-election campaign but not his first election, and Richard Nixon in his re-election campaign but not his first successful Presidential campaign.

Polling Data:

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican		Democrat		Margin
8/16/03	Field	NA	RV	4%	Bush	42%	Unnamed Democrat	47%	Dem +5
8/16/03	Public Policy Institute	NA	LV	3%	Bush	40%	Unnamed Democrat	45%	Dem +5
1/3/04	Public Policy Institute	Link	LV	3%	Bush	45%	Unnamed Democrat	45%	Tied
1/13/04	Field	NA	RV	3.4%	Bush	46%	Unnamed Democrat	47%	Dem +1
1/18/04	Rasmussen	NA	LV	4%	Bush	41%	Unnamed Democrat	46%	Dem +5
2/13/04	Knowledge Networks	Link	RV	4.1%	Bush	38%	Kerry	42%	Dem +4
2/16/04	Public Policy Institute	Link	1,103 LV	3%	Bush	37%	Kerry	54%	Dem +17
2/22/04	LA Times	Link	1,521 RV	3%	Bush	40%	Kerry	53%	Dem +13
2/27/04	Knowledge Networks	Link	505 RV	3.8%	Bush	38%	Kerry	43%	Kerry +5
3/11/04	Rasmussen	Link	455 LV	5%	Bush	44%	Kerry	53%	Kerry +9
4/17/04	Rasmussen	Link	502 LV	5%	Bush	40%	Kerry	51%	Kerry +11
4/21/04	L.A. Times	Link	1,265 LV, Nader an option	3%	Bush	39%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +10
4/21/04	L.A. Times	Link	1,265 LV, Nader not an option	3%	Bush	41%	Kerry	53%	Kerry +12
5/6/04	SurveyUSA	Link	635 LV	4%	Bush	45%	Kerry	46%	Kerry +1
5/24/04	Field	Link	647 RV, Nader not an option	4%	Bush	40%	Kerry	55%	Kerry +15
5/24/04	Field	Link	647 RV, Nader an option	4%	Bush	39%	Kerry	51%	Kerry +12
5/31/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	3%	Bush	41%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +8
6/30/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	3%	Bush	38%	Kerry	52%	Kerry +14
7/12/04	Public Policy Institute of California	Link	1,378 LV	3%	Bush	38%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +11
7/22/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	5%	Bush	41%	Kerry	52%	Kerry +11
7/25/04	SurveyUSA	Link	LV	4%	Bush	41%	Kerry	53%	Kerry +12
7/31/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	3%	Bush	37%	Kerry	55%	Kerry +18

Punditry: Strong Advantage for Kerry. Kerry polling that much better in California explains a lot of why Kerry was doing better in Rasmussen's daily tracking poll last month.

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	Missouri
	Electoral Votes: 11
	2000 Result
	Bush 50%
	Gore 47%

Background: Considered by many to be a bellwether state, Missouri has gone Republican in every election after 1964 except for three. Jimmy Carter beat Gerald Ford by a small, four point margin. Bill Clinton won the state twice, but both times relied on Perot taking double digits (over 20% in the first). From 1968 on, the only Democrat to break 50% in Missouri was Carter, and the only Republican to fail to get 50% absent a truly strong third party candidate was Ford.

Polling Data:

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican		Democrat		Margin
9/9/03	Research 2000	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	49%	Dick Gephardt	39%	Bush +10
1/29/04	Research 2000	Link	804 LV	4%	Bush	45%	Unnamed Democrat	40%	Bush +5
2/14/04	Decision Research (D)	NA	LV	4%	Bush	46%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +3
3/2/04	Suffolk University	Link	LV	4%	Bush	50%	Kerry	39%	Bush +11
3/19/04	Decision Research (D)	NA	LV	4%	Bush	46%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +3
3/23/04	Rasmussen	Link	500 LV	4.5%	Bush	49%	Kerry	42%	Bush +7
5/31/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	5%	Bush	44%	Kerry	43%	Bush +1
6/8/04	LA Times	Link	566 RV	4%	Bush	48%	Kerry	37%	Bush +11
6/30/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	5%	Bush	48%	Kerry	44%	Bush +4
7/8/04	SurveyUSA	Link	755 LV	4%	Bush	48%	Kerry	46%	Bush +2
7/20/04	Market Research Institute	Link	600 RV	4%	Bush	44%	Kerry	46%	Kerry +2
7/22/04	Research2000	Link	802 LV, Nader not an option	4%	Bush	45%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +3
			802 LV, Nader an option	4%	Bush	45%	Kerry	47%	Kerry +2
7/22/04	Gallup	Link	636 LV, Nader not an option	5%	Bush	48%	Kerry	48%	Push
			636 LV, Nader an option	5%	Bush	47%	Kerry	47%	Push
7/31/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	5%	Bush	50%	Kerry	46%	Bush +4

Punditry: Rasmussen holds steady from June, which is a bit of a better result for the President than the last last three other polls. It is tempting to move Missouri off of Tossup, but I would like to see a confirming poll in one direction or another first.

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	Pennsylvania
	Electoral Votes: 21
	2000 Result
	Gore 51%
	Bush 46%

Background: Democrats have won this state 6 of the last 10 elections, with the first of Clinton's wins being attributable to Ross Perot being on the ballot (19%). Typically, the races in the Keystone state have been close. Pennsylvania started as leaning Bush last time, but has drifted to where it has a slight advantage for the Democrats. Republicans hold a 12-7 advantage in the numbers of Representatives, and hold both Senate seats. They also hold both chambers of the state legislature. The Democrats hold the major executive branch positions except for Attorney General, and have a significant registration advantage (48%-42%).

Polling Data:

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican		Democrat		Margin
5/13/03	Quinnipiac	Link	952 RV	3.2%	Bush	56%	Kerry	34%	Bush +22
10/9/03	Quinnipiac	Link	1,116 RV	3%	Bush	50%	Kerry	43%	Bush +7
11/23/03	Muhlenberg College	Link	430 RV	4.7%	Bush	47%	Kerry	40%	Bush +7
12/14/03	Quinnipiac	Link	1,092 RV	3%	Bush	50%	Kerry	42%	Bush +8
2/18/04	Quinnipiac	Ling	1,356 RV	2.7%	Bush	45%	Kerry	50%	Dem +5
2/22/04	Keystone Poll	Link	392 RV	4.9%	Bush	46%	Kerry	47%	Dem +1
3/?/04	Muhlenberg College	Link	RV	?%	Bush	?%	Kerry	?%	Push
3/3/04	Pennsylvania Public Mind	Link	1750 Adults	2.4%	Bush	45%	Kerry	47%	Kerry +2
3/11/04	Survey USA	Link	802 RV	3.5%	Bush	47%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +2
3/15/04	Qunnipiac	Link	1,022 RV (Nader not given as an option)	3	Bush	44%	Kerry	45%	Kerry +1
			1,022 RV (Nader given as an option)	3%	Bush	44%	Kerry	40%	Bush +4
3/16/04	Rasmussen	Link	500 LV	4.5%	Bush	44%	Kerry	45%	Kerry +1
3/29/04	Keystone Poll	Link	565 RV	4.1%	Bush	46%	Kerry	40%	Bush +6
4/19/04	Quinnipiac	Link	769 RV, Nader not an option	3.5%	Bush	46%	Kerry	42%	Bush +4
			769 RV, Nader an option	3.5%	Bush	45%	Kerry	39%	Bush +6
4/25/04	Pew Research	Link	867 RV	4%	Bush	42%	Kerry	42%	Push
5/3/04	Bennett, Petts, And Blumenthal (D)	Link	LV	4%	Bush	43%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +6
5/7/04	Susquehanna Polling (R)	Link	650 LV	4%	Bush	46%	Kerry	44%	Bush +2
5/14/04	Muhlenberg College	Link	400 RV	5%	Bush	43%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +5
5/25/04	Quinnipiac	Link	701 LV	4%	Bush	41%	Kerry	44%	Kerry +3
5/31/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	4%	Bush	45%	Kerry	44%	Bush +1
6/9/04	SurveyUSA	Link	684 LV	4%	Bush	46%	Kerry	47%	Kerry +1
6/22/04	Quinnipiac	Link	839 RV, Nader an option	3%	Bush	43%	Kerry	44%	Kerry +1
			839 RV, Nader not an option	3%	Bush	43%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +6
6/23/04	Fox Opinion Dynamics	Link	750 RV	4%	Bush	46%	Kerry	41%	Bush +5
6/30/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	4%	Bush	43%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +5
7/11/04	Quinnipiac	Link	1,157 RV, Nader an option	3%	Bush	41%	Kerry	46%	Kerry +5
			1,157 RV, Nader not an option	3%	Bush	42%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +7
7/20/04	Strategic Vision (R)	Link	801 LV	3%	Bush	43%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +5
7/21/04	LA Times	Link	815 RV	4%	Bush	38%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +10
8/2/04	SurveyUSA	Link	748 LV	4%	Bush	41%	Kerry	53%	Kerry +12

Punditry: Pennsylvania appears to be slipping away, if the LA Times poll and Survey USA polls are any indication. Rasmussen's latest rust-belt tracking poll does not support this movement, so there is some contradictory information here.

Looking over the internals of the SurveyUSA poll, there are parts of it that simply do not look right to me. Since two months ago, Republican self-identification dropped, according to the two SurveyUSA polls, 7%; yet back in the previous poll Bush had the support of over 90% of Republicans. It is common in the aftermath of a convention to see the self-identified independents drop. It is not common for self-identified members of the opposing party to drop. As such, either something unprecedented is happening in Pennsylvania to the benefit of the Kerry campaign, or this is a sample which is a bit overly optimistic for him. I am keeping Pennsylvania Leaning Towards Kerry for now.

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	Tennessee
	Electoral Votes: 11
	2000 Result
	Bush 51%
	Gore 47%

Background: Carter against Ford, Clinton twice (both times needing help from Perot), and Johnson. Republicans generally have had success here since Truman.

Polling Data:

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican		Democrat		Margin
12/8/03	Mason-Dixon	Link	LV	4%	Bush	52%	Unnamed Democrat	37%	Bush +15
1/29/04	Mason-Dixon	NA	LV	5%	Bush	47%	Kerry	43%	Bush +4
2/28/03	Middle Tennessee State University	Link	701 Voting Age Residents	4%	Bush	48%	Kerry	44%	Bush +4
3/22/04	Survey USA	Link	678 LV	3.9%	Bush	52%	Kerry	41%	Bush +11
6/16/04	Rasmussen	Link	500 LV	5%	Bush	49%	Kerry	41%	Bush +8
6/21/04	SurveyUSA	Link	700 LV	4%	Bush	51%	Kerry	41%	Bush +10
8/2/04	SurveyUSA	Link	586 LV	4%	Bush	48%	Kerry	46%	Bush +2

Punditry: Quite a bit closer than the last Tennesee SurveyUSA poll. Could it be that Kerry had some localized bounces? Time will tell, and I need more than one result to move a state that had been so steady, so it remains Leaning Towards Bush.

Some good news for Kerry beyond the topline. As with most states, before the convention more Tennessee Kerry supporters were against Bush rather than being for Kerry. Now, more are for the Senator. This is an indication that he was able to turn some negative energy into positive energy, which was a crucial task for him. If that holds up a few weeks after his convention, then he has a shot of making Tennessee competitive for the rest of the way.

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	Washington
	Electoral Votes: 11
	2000 Result
	Gore 50%
	Bush 45%

Background: The Democrats have won the last four, and 6 of the last 10, with all four Republican wins coming consecutively (Nixon, Ford, ReaganX2). It is unclear as to if Clinton would have won the first time here sans Perot; it would likely have been extremely close. The Dukakis/Bush race was very close. The Clinton/Dole race was not.

Polling Data:

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican		Democrat		Margin
1/5/04	SurveyUSA	NA	975 RV	3%	Bush	48%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +1
2/4/04	SurveyUSA	Link	975 RV	3%	Bush	43%	Kerry	55%	Kerry +12
3/24/04	SurveyUSA	Link	698 LV	4%	Bush	43%	Kerry	47%	Kerry +4
3/25/04	Rasmussen	Link	500 LV	5%	Bush	44%	Kerry	50%	Kerry +6
4/5/04	The Elway Poll	NA	LV	5%	Bush	41%	Kerry	46%	Kerry +5
4/18/04	Moore Information (R)	Link	500 RV	4%	Bush	41%	Kerry	45%	Kerry +4
6/4/04	SurveyUSA	Link	654 LV	4%	Bush	44%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +5
6/11/04	Moore Information (R)	Link	500 RV	4%	Bush	44%	Kerry	45%	Kerry +1
6/11/04	Mason-Dixon**	Link	625 LV	4%	Bush	42%	Kerry	46%	Kerry +4
6/24/04	Moore Information (R)	NA	500 RV	4%	Bush	43%	Kerry	43%	Push
6/30/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	5%	Bush	41%	Kerry	50%	Kerry +9
8/2/04	SurveyUSA	Link	585 LV	4%	Bush	43%	Kerry	51%	Kerry +8

** Done for a 'private public policy client'.

Punditry: Steady as she goes for Kerry in Washington, which is still Leaning Towards Kerry. The internals of this poll look like your typical post-convention poll. The Democrats are united behind Kerry, there has been some very slight slippage among Republicans for Bush, and independents are going strongly for Kerry.

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	Michigan
	Electoral Votes: 17
	2000 Result
	Gore 51%
	Bush 46%

Background: 2-5-3 in the last ten elections. Without Perot, it likely would have been 2-6-2. Since Lyndon Johnson, only Reagan in his re-elect has approached 60%. Michigan has gone from leaning Bush to having a slight advantage for the Democrats. Republicans have 9 of 15 Representatives, Democrats hold both Senate seats, while Republicans hold both houses of the state legislature. The state executive is split; Democrats hold the Governor and Lt. Governor positions while Republicans have the Secretary of State and Attorney General slots.

Michigan has gone from leaning Bush to having a slight advantage for the Democrats. Republicans have 9 of 15 Representatives, Democrats hold both Senate seats, while Republicans hold both houses of the state legislature. The state executive is split; Democrats hold the Governor and Lt. Governor positions while Republicans have the Secretary of State and Attorney General slots.

Polling Data:

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican		Democrat		Margin
5/26/03	Epic/MRA	Link	400 RV	5%	Bush	48%	Unnamed Democrat	41%	Bush +7
9/21/03	Detroit News/Mitchell Research	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	44%	Unnamed Democrat	49%	Dem +5
12/10/03	Survey USA	Link	724 LV	3.7%	Bush	53%	Kerry	43%	Bush +10
2/3/04	Survey USA	Link	724 LV	3.7%	Bush	46%	Kerry	51%	Dem +5
2/22/04	Epic/MRA	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	45%	Kerry	49%	Dem +4
3/1/04	Detroit News/Mitchell Research	Link	LV	4%	Bush	40%	Kerry	46%	Kerry +6
3/14/04	Rasmussen	Link	500 LV	4.5%	Bush	44%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +4
3/14/04	Marketing Resource Group	Link	600 RV	4.1%	Bush	47%	Kerry	45%	Bush +2
4/1/04	Epic/MRA	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	45%	Kerry	47%	Kerry +2
4/4/04	Survey USA	Link	536 LV	4.3%	Bush	41%	Kerry	51%	Kerry +10
5/2/04	Survey USA	Link	536 LV	4.3%	Bush	43%	Kerry	47%	Kerry +4
5/12/04	Detroit News/Mitchell Research	Link	413 LV	5%	Bush	44%	Kerry	40%	Bush +4
5/31/04	Survey USA	Link	567 LV	4%	Bush	43%	Kerry	47%	Kerry +4
5/31/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	5%	Bush	41%	Kerry	47%	Kerry +6
6/6/04	Epic/MRA	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	45%	Kerry	47%	Kerry +2
6/23/04	Fox Opinion Dynamics	Link	750 LV	4%	Bush	42%	Kerry	40%	Bush +2
6/30/04	Survey USA	Link	594 LV	4%	Bush	41%	Kerry	51%	Kerry +10
6/30/04	Detroit News/Mitchell Research	Link	400 LV	5%	Bush	44%	Kerry	43%	Bush +1
6/30/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	4%	Bush	44%	Kerry	46%	Kerry +2
7/8/04	American Research Group	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	43%	Kerry	50%	Kerry +7
7/8/04	Epic/MRA	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	44%	Kerry	47%	Kerry +3
7/17/04	Strategic Vision (R)	Link	801 LV	3%	Bush	44%	Kerry	46%	Kerry +2
8/2/04	Strategic Vision (R)	Link	801 LV	3%	Bush	42%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +7

Punditry: According to Strategic Vision, Kerry enjoyed a 5 point bounce in Michigan, which remains Leaning Towards Kerry. It could possibly be that Kerry did not get much of a bounce nationwide out of his convention, but did get a modest one in the battleground states.

The lead drops to 5 points when Nader is included on the ballot, but since the deadline has already passed, that is a moot point.

Bush's approval gap in Michigan is 5 points.

---

	Wisconsin
	Electoral Votes: 10
	2000 Result
	Gore 47.83%
	Bush 47.61%

Background: I got the *BLEEP* kicked out of me in Wisconsin. Oh wait, sorry. Stripes flashback. Reagan won here twice. Nixon won here three times. LBJ and Carter (against Ford) won here, and then the Democrats have taken the last four elections here. The first of Clinton's wins would have been a loss for him without Perot.

Polling Data:

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican		Democrat		Margin
5/03	Badger Poll	Link	Adults	4%	Bush	53%	Unnamed Democrat	42%	Bush +11
10/28/03	Badger Poll	Link	Adults	4%	Bush	46%	Unnamed Democrat	45%	Bush +1
1/27/04	Badger Poll	Link	Adults	4%	Bush	38%	Unnamed Democrat	54%	Dem +16
3/24/04	American Research Group	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	43%	Unnamed Democrat	46%	Kerry +3
3/31/04	Badger Poll	Link	500 Adults, Nader not an option	4%	Bush	47%	Kerry	41%	Bush +6
			500 Adults, Nader an option	4%	Bush	49%	Kerry	45%	Bush +4
4/21/04	Wisconsin Public Radio / St. Norbert College Survey Center	Link	358 RV	5%	Bush	42%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +7
4/28/04	Rasmussen	Link	500 LV, Nader not an option	4.5%	Bush	42%	Kerry	50%	Kerry +8
			500 LV, Nader an option	4.5%	Bush	41%	Kerry	45%	Kerry +4
4/28/04	Badger Poll	Link	511 Adults	4.5%	Bush	50%	Kerry	38%	Bush +12
5/9/04	Lake, Snell, Perry & Associates (D)	Link	?	?	Bush	40%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +9
6/8/04	LA Times	Link	694 RV	4%	Bush	44%	Kerry	42%	Bush +2
6/23/04	Badger Poll	Link	504 Adults, Nader an option	4%	Bush	46%	Kerry	42%	Bush +4
7/12/04	Center for Survey Research and Analysis	Link	575 RV, two man race	4%	Bush	48.4%	Kerry	45.9%	Bush +2.5
			575 RV, four man race	4%	Bush	46.1%	Kerry	44.6%	Bush +1.5
7/13/04	Strategic Vision (R)	Link	801 LV, Nader not an option	4%	Bush	45%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +3
			801 LV, Nader an option	4%	Bush	45%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +3
7/15/04	American Research Group	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	42%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +6
8/2/04	Strategic Vision (R)	Link	801 LV, Nader not an option	3%	Bush	46%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +3
			801 LV, Nader an option	4%	Bush	46%	Kerry	47%	Kerry +1

Punditry: Strategic Vision says no bounce in Wisconsin, but still has Kerry ahead by a very slim margin. Slight Advantage for Kerry remains the designation.

Strange numbers here on the approval ratings. Bush has almost no approval gap, but unlike most close states his disapproval rating is well below his approval rating (48-37).

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	Illinois
	Electoral Votes: 21
	2000 Result
	Gore 55%
	Bush 42%

Background: Before Clinton broke through, Republicans had won six straight Presidential contests in Illinois. But Clinton's win against Bush was not because of Perot; he would have carried it without him in the race. And Gore flat out spanked Bush here.

Polling Data:

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican		Democrat		Margin
6/9/03	Chicago Tribune	NA	RV	3.8%	Bush	38%	Unnamed Democrat	36%	Bush +2
10/20/03	Chicago Tribune	NA	700 RV	3.8%	Bush	38%	Unnamed Democrat	49%	Dem +11
1/9/04	Chicago Tribune	Link	RV	3.8%	Bush	40%	Unnamed Democrat	48%	Dem +8
3/3/04	Research 2000	Link	500 LV	5%	Bush	36%	Kerry	54%	Kerry +18
3/3/04	Rasmussen	Link	1500 LV	3%	Bush	39%	Kerry	52%	Kerry +15
3/13/04	Copley News Service/Mason-Dixon	Link	625 LV	4%	Bush	39%	Kerry	47%	Kerry +8
5/12/04	Rasmussen	Link	500 LV	4.5%	Bush	43%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +5
5/24/04	Market Shares Corp.	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	38%	Kerry	54%	Kerry +16
5/31/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	4%	Bush	38%	Kerry	54%	Kerry +16
6/9/04	SurveyUSA	Link	742 LV	4%	Bush	39%	Kerry	52%	Kerry +13
6/30/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	4%	Bush	37%	Kerry	53%	Kerry +16
7/31/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	4%	Bush	39%	Kerry	54%	Kerry +15

Punditry: Another Rasmussen poll that is basically unchanged from a month prior, and Illinois remains a Strong Advantage for Kerry. Not that it matters in the Land of Lincoln, but Bush's support lags his approval rating by 6 points.

---

			Iowa
			Electoral Votes: 7
			2000 Result
			Gore 48%
			Bush 46%

Background: Iowa is a state of streaks, going 1-5-4 over the last 10. Clinton would likely have lost his first campaign against Bush had Perot not been a factor. The state is generally close, with the only surprisingly large margin coming when Dukakis beat Bush by 10 points.

Iowa rated a slight advantage to Bush in the first ECB of 2000. This time, it rates a slight advantage to the Democrats. Other positions in Iowa are mixed. The Republicans hold 4 of the 5 House seats, and the Senate seats are split. The Republicans control both chambers of the state legislature, but the Democrats hold all major executive offices except for Auditor. Republicans hold a 32% to 29% advantage in registration.

Polling Data:

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican		Democrat		Margin
9/12/03	Des Moines Register	Link	803 Adults	3.5%	Bush	41%	Unnamed Democrat	41%	Even
10/30/03	Research 2000	Link	LV	4%	Bush	46%	Unnamed Democrat	47%	Dem +1
1/5/04	Research 2000	Link	LV	4%	Bush	50%	Unnamed Democrat	42%	Bush +8
2/11/04	Selzer & Co.	NA	RV	3.4%	Bush	42%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +7
3/23/04	Rasmussen	Link	500 LV	4.5%	Bush	41%	Kerry	51%	Kerry +10
4/21/04	American Research Group	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	46%	Kerry	47%	Kerry +1
5/25/04	Research 2000	Link	604 LV, Nader not an option	4%	Bush	43%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +5
			604 LV, Nader an option	4%	Bush	42%	Kerry	46%	Kerry +4
5/27/04	SurveyUSA	Link	794 LV	4%	Bush	45%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +3
5/31/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	5%	Bush	41%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +8
6/30/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	5%	Bush	44%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +4
7/12/04	Center for Survey Research and Analysis	Link	614 RV, two man race	4%	Bush	45.7%	Kerry	50.4%	Kerry +4.7
			614 RV, four man race	4%	Bush	44.4%	Kerry	47.7%	Kerry +3.3
7/21/04	Selzer & Co.	Link	LV	4%	Bush	46%	Kerry	45%	Bush +1
7/23/04	Strategic Vision (R)	Link	641 LV	3%	Bush	46%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +2
7/28/04	American Research Group	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	46%	Kerry	46%	Push
7/31/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	5%	Bush	45%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +3

Punditry: Right back over to Slight Advantage for Kerry goes Iowa. The results are practically unchanged since last month's Rasmussen volley, with Bush picking up a single point. Bush has a rather large approval gap of 9 points here, which is an opportunity for him come his convention.

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	Georgia
	Electoral Votes: 15
	2000 Result
	Bush 55%
	Gore 43%

Background: Wallace and Goldwater won here. The only times the Democrats have carried this state since 1960 have been when native son Jimmy Carter was topping the ticket (twice) and when fellow southerner Bill Clinton beat that Yankee George H.W. Bush by a point, while Texan H. Ross Perot siphoned off 13% of the vote. This is not a friendly state for Democrats in Presidential elections, as even Bob Dole won here over Clinton despite Perot taking 7%.

Polling Data:

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican		Democrat		Margin
10/15/03	Zogby	Link	400 LV	4.5%	Bush	52%	Unnamed Democrat	39%	Bush +13
10/23/03	Shapiro Research Group	Link	RV	4.5%	Bush	49%	Unnamed Democrat	41%	Bush +8
2/4/04	Shapiro Research Group	NA	RV	4.5%	Bush	47%	Unnamed Democrat	44%	Bush +3
5/31/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	4%	Bush	51%	Kerry	39%	Bush +12
6/2/04	Insider Advantage	Link	RV	5%	Bush	49%	Kerry	32%	Bush +17
6/30/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	4%	Bush	52%	Kerry	41%	Bush +11
7/11/04	Strategic Vision (R)	Link	801 RV, Nader not an option	4%	Bush	51%	Kerry	40%	Bush +11
			801 RV, Nader an option	4%	Bush	51%	Kerry	38%	Bush +13
8/2/04	Strategic Vision (R)	Link	801 LV, Nader not an option	3%	Bush	52%	Kerry	43%	Bush +9
			801 LV, Nader an option	3%	Bush	52%	Kerry	41%	Bush +11
7/31/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	4%	Bush	53%	Kerry	42%	Bush +11

Punditry: As I said earlier today, no real change in the peach state, which remains a Strong Advantage for Bush. Bush has a 5 point approval gap.

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	Minnesota
	Electoral Votes: 10
	2000 Result
	Gore 48%
	Bush 46%

Background: Nixon (against McGovern) is the only Republican winner since Ike. Reagan (against Carter) and Bush (against Gore) made it close, and it is possible that Dole could have beaten Clinton sans Perot. The Reagan race that was close was notable because it was against the homestate Mondale.

The slight advantage for the Democrats is a step up from the leaning Gore position at the start of ECB 2000. Minnesota's legislative seats are split right down the middle. Half of the Representatives, half of the Senate seats, and one of the state legislative chambers are held by each party. Most of the important executive branch offices are held by Republicans with the exception of Attorney General.

Polling Data:

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican		Democrat		Margin
1/26/04	Mason-Dixon	NA	LV	4%	Bush	41%	Kerry	43%	Kerry +2
3/25/04	Rasmussen	Link	500 LV	4.5%	Bush	44%	Kerry	47%	Kerry +3
4/2/04	Star-Tribune Minnesota Poll	Link	562 LV	4.1%	Bush	38%	Kerry	50%	Kerry +12
5/26/04	Mason-Dixon	Link	625 LV	4%	Bush	41%	Kerry	44%	Kerry +3
5/31/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	5%	Bush	43%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +5
6/14/04	Public Opinion Strategies (R)	NA	LV	3.5%	Bush	42.2%	Kerry	46.5%	Kerry +4.3
6/30/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	5%	Bush	41%	Kerry	50%	Kerry +9
7/12/04	Center for Survey Research and Analysis	Link	589 RV, two man race	4%	Bush	45.8%	Kerry	49.0%	Kerry +3.2
			589 RV, four man race	4%	Bush	44.2%	Kerry	46.5%	Kerry +2.3
7/16/04	Mason-Dixon	Link	625 LV	4%	Bush	44%	Kerry	45%	Kerry +1
7/24/04	Strategic Vision (R)	Link	801 LV, Nader not an option	4%	Bush	47%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +1
			801 LV, Nader an option	4%	Bush	47%	Kerry	47%	Push
7/31/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	5%	Bush	42%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +7

Punditry: Rasmussen has had Minnesota a bit more open than other pollsters, so while this is a better result for Kerry than the last few polls, it actually represents a bit of a tightening of the race since last month's Rasmussen release. As such, I am maintaining Minnesota in the Slight Advantage for Kerry designation. The approval gap here is 6 points.

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			New Jersey
			Electoral Votes: 15
			2000 Result
			Gore 56%
			Bush 40%

Background: New Jersey used to be considered a Republican state. Those days have passed, although there are still some signs of life. In the last 10 Presidential elections it has gone 1-6-3 with the Republican wins coming in the middle, the last Clinton win and the Gore win were by such substantial margins that it is hard to avoid the feeling that New Jersey is trending leftward.

If New Jersey remains tight enough to stay in the battleground, it is a case of back to the future. ECB2000 started with it leaning Gore's way. The Democrats have 7 of 13 Representatives and both Senate seats, control both chambers of the state legislature, hold all of the important executive offices, and have a 25%-19% advantage in voter registration.

Polling Data:

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican		Democrat		Margin
9/8/03	Rutgers	Link	802 Adults	3.5%	Bush	43%	Unnamed Democrat	35%	Bush +8
9/15/03	Fairleigh Dickinson University/Public Mind	Link	600 RV	4%	Bush	36%	Unnamed Democrat	29%	Bush +7
9/25/03	Quinnipiac	Link	RV	3.1%	Bush	48%	Kerry	43%	Bush +5
11/10/03	Quinnipiac	Link	1,027 RV	3.1%	Bush	46%	Kerry	43%	Bush +3
1/11/04	Fairleigh Dickinson University/Public Mind	Link	600 RV	4%	Bush	40%	Unnamed Democrat	32%	Bush +8
1/13/04	Rutgers	Link	823 RV	4.2%	Bush	41%	Unnamed Democrat	38%	Bush +3
4/10/04	Fairleigh Dickinson University/Public Mind	Link	802 RV, Nader not an option	3.5%	Bush	47%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +1
4/10/04	Fairleigh Dickinson University/Public Mind	Link	802 RV, Nader an option	3.5%	Bush	48%	Kerry	44%	Bush +4
4/20/04	Rasmussen	Link	500 LV	4.5%	Bush	39%	Kerry	51%	Kerry +12
5/4/04	Rutgers / Eagleton	Link	643 RV	4%	Bush	37%	Kerry	43%	Kerry +6
5/16/04	Quinnipiac	Link	1,129 RV, Nader not an option	2.9%	Bush	44%	Kerry	47%	Kerry +3
5/16/04	Quinnipiac	Link	1,129 RV, Nader an option	3%	Bush	43%	Kerry	46%	Kerry +3
5/31/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	5%	Bush	39%	Kerry	51%	Kerry +12
6/20/04	Quinnipiac	Link	1,167 RV, Nader an option	3%	Bush	40%	Kerry	46%	Kerry +6
6/30/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	5%	Bush	41%	Kerry	51%	Kerry +10
7/26/04	Fairleigh Dickinson University/Public Mind	Link	834 RV	4%	Bush	43%	Kerry	45%	Kerry +2
7/28/04	Research2000	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	40%	Kerry	50%	Kerry +10
8/2/04	Quinnipiac	Link	996 RV, Nader an option	3%	Bush	36%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +13

Punditry: It was fun while it lasted, but the New Jersey voters have come home to where they are comfortable, and New Jersey now is polling like the Strong Advantage for Kerry state that conventional wisdom suggested it should have all along. Bush has a 7 point approval gap, but that will not matter so long as his disapproval rating remains anywhere near the 53% measured in this survey. Kerry enjoys a whopping 90-3 advantage among Democrats, which beats Bush's 85-9 advantage among the less numerous Republicans.

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Effective National Popular Results: Kerry 47.1%, Bush 44.8%

Kerry E					F Bush
Safe	Strong	Lean	Slight	Tossup	Slight	Lean	Strong	Safe
DC (3)	DE (3)	OR (7) K50-B42 7/22/04	ME (4) K46-B45 6/30/04	NV (5) K49-B45 7/23/04	AR (6) B49-K47 7/12/04	CO (9) B48-K43* 6/18/04	SD (3) B50-K35 5/21/04	ND (3)
HI (4)	VT (3) K51-B36 5/1/04	PA (21) K53-B41 8/2/04	NM (5) K49-B42 7/8/04	OH (20) B47-K44* 7/23/04	FL (27) B50-K47 7/22/04	AZ (10) B48-K45 8/1/04	SC (8) B51-K44 7/12/04	NE (5)
RI (4) K49-B25 6/14/04	MD (10) K53-B39 6/30/04	WA (11) K51-B43 8/2/04	NH (4) K48-B46 7/21/04	MO (11) B50-K46 7/31/04	VA (13) B49-K46 7/31/04	NC (15) B50-K45 7/31/04	LA (9) B54-K38 7/??/04	WY (3)
CT (7) K50-B32* 6/28/04	IL (21) K54-B39 7/31/04	MI (17) K49-B42*R 8/2/04	WV (5) K47-B44 7/28/04	-	-	TN (11) B48-K46 8/2/04	KY (8) B52-K42 7/26/04	MS (6) B61.2-K30.0 4/21/04
NY (31) K51-B29 7/12/04	CA (55) K55-B37 7/31/04	-	MN (10) K49-B42 7/31/04	-	-	-	GA (15) B51-K42*R 8/2/04	UT (5) B67-K22 5/10/04
MA (12) K56-B30 7/28/04	NJ (15) K49-B36*R 8/2/04	-	IA (7) K48-B45 7/31/04	-	-	-	-	MT (3) B53-K33 5/26/04
-	-	-	WI (10) K49-B46*R 8/2/04	-	-	-	-	ID (4) B55-K25 6/14/04
-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	TX (34) B55-K37 6/30/04
-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	KS (6) B56-K36 6/30/04
-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	AK (3) B56-K33*R 6/30/04
-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	OK (7) B59-K35 7/??/04
-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	IN (11) B47-K26* 7/12/04
-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	AL (9) B56-K34 7/28/04
Totals
Kerry States			Battleground States			Bush States
61	107	56	45	36	46	45	43	99
224			127			187

* Indicates a Registered Voter poll as opposed to a Likely Voter poll.
*R Indicates a partisan Republican poll. *D Inidcates a partisan Democrat poll.
** Indicates a poll of either adults or residents.

Discuss ECB2004 On Free Republic

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It is time for the return of the weekly trivia! AntiGuv decided to throw this one out:

"Everyone and his sister has heard time and again that no Republican has won the White House without winning Ohio. Well, there's a less-heralded factoid that no Democrat has won the White House without winning a certain state. Do you happen to know which state that is?"

I'll admit, I did not know off the top of my head.

[Dales]

I apologize for the delay in posting this to FR. I meant to do so on Thursday, but ran into some bandwidth issues on my site, got sidetracked, and plum forgot. :-/

[Dales]

Sorry for the lateness of it this week ping. The article was actually up on Wednesday, but I did not get it posted here until now.

[Neets]

Ciao bello!

[COEXERJ145]

As long as ARG polls are included, Kerry will always have an advantage.

[swilhelm73]

"Everyone and his sister has heard time and again that no Republican has won the White House without winning Ohio. Well, there's a less-heralded factoid that no Democrat has won the White House without winning a certain state. Do you happen to know which state that is?"

I'll take a wild guess...Ohio?

[ElkGroveDan]

Well, there's a less-heralded factoid that no Democrat has won the White House without winning a certain state. Do you happen to know which state that is?

The State of Confusion?

[Constitution1st]

Ohio is not a toss-up; it is definite for Bush, with Bush having a 7 point lead over kerry.

The dims are working overtime to make the people believe that it is close between kerry and Bush, so they can attempt massive vote fraud. But, it is not anywhere near close. Just like this example of calling Ohio a toss-up.

[motife]

Bush will get 206 electoral for sure from 24 states. Kerry, 205 from 15, plus D.C.

States in doubt :

Leaning Bush :

Missouri 11, Ohio 20, Florida 27, Nevada 5, W.Va. 5

would give Bush 274 from 29 states

Leaning Kerry :

Pennsylvania 21, Minnesota 10, Oregon 7, New Hampshire 4, Iowa 7, Wisconsin 10

would give Kerry 264 votes from 21 states plus D.C.

[swilhelm73]

The dims are working overtime to make the people believe that it is close between kerry and Bush, so they can attempt massive vote fraud

I think the other element is that lefties will vote Nader or stay home if they think it isn't even close.

One could see quite a cascade effect if he falls well behind Bush in the polls in the homestretch. Lefties are voting Kerry not because they like the self confessed war criminal, but because they hate Bush and think Kerry is electable after all.

[Constitution1st]

Yes, I do live in Ohio, and "Progressive" is just another name for communist.

[Wallaby]

"Everyone and his sister has heard time and again that no Republican has won the White House without winning Ohio. Well, there's a less-heralded factoid that no Democrat has won the White House without winning a certain state. Do you happen to know which state that is?"

Missouri

[Constitution1st]

Rush has predicted that the kerry campaign is going to implode, and I don't see how they can avoid it; what a major loser!

The leftists that actually hate Bush number about 18-25%; they won't hold a candle to those who will be voting for Bush.

I sense a landslide victory, that the left will lie about, and try to prevent by the vote fraud I mentioned above. It's high time to be an observer at your place of voting to watch for the fraud.

[gilliam]

Thank you for all your hard work.

[beyond the sea]

This means nothing until after a debate or two.

Totally meaningless......... like batting averages in spring training!

[Vigilanteman]

If the election were held today and GWB won all the leaning Bush and all the toss-up states, he would still be one EV short of a clear majority at 269.
If both candidates win the same states they won in 2000 except that NH and WV flip to the Democrats, then we still have a 269-269 tie.

And finally, if my uncle had been plumbed a little bit differently, he might have been my auntie.

[gitmo]

Rush has predicted that the kerry campaign is going to implode, and I don't see how they can avoid it; what a major loser!

I thought the same thing about Clinton in 92, Clinton in 96 and Gore in 2000.

[nwrep]

Rush has predicted that the kerry campaign is going to implode, and I don't see how they can avoid it; what a major loser!

You are correct. Rush is a major loser!!

[MrChips]

MMMmmmmmm. With the 3 slight leaners and the 3 tossups, Bush wins in the House of Rep. with 269. But I think he will win 2 or more of those slight leaners toward Kerry, too.

[Citizen of the Savage Nation]

As long as ARG polls are included, Kerry will always have an advantage.

As I asked on another thread, has ARG come out with a poll, this year, that had Bush ahead in *any* state? They are that ridiculous.

The ugly polls that I knew were coming after demcon are now here. The problem we have in trying to follow the national picture is that almost all of these polls are coming from ARG, Rasmussen, and SUSA. ARG as usual, is undergoing Operation Pull These Numbers Out of Our Asses, one gets the feeling that they have Kerry winning 538-0.

The problem with Rasmussen's polls, besides the fact that trained monkeys could throw darts at the electoral map and pick winners better than he did in '00 (ditto for ARG, and Zogby in '02), is the huge approval gaps for Bush that show up in his polls. Bush is going to win any state that he is polling 51% or higher come election day, almost guaranteed, and that fact alone will dramatically alter his electoral map.

Lastly, SUSA has come out with some real clunkers after demcon, right on cue. The MO primary gave us our best clue as to how they are doing; they had Holden up by 1% but he lost by 6%. They blew that poll, MOE be damned. Also, in the SC primary, while they had DeMint winning, as I recall, they only had him winning by half the margin he did, something like 8 pts off. If you are missing polls by 6-8% and clinging to the 'well its still in the 2xMOE' excuse, bottomline, you suck.

If my prediction is right, though, this will be Kerry's highpoint and the polls will regress back to the mean in the next few weeks prior to repcon. On a related note, it is interesting that Bush has gained ground in the Iowa and SportsTrader markets, which is probably a better indicator then all these crappy polls. We'll see.

[COEXERJ145]

As I asked on another thread, has ARG come out with a poll, this year, that had Bush ahead in *any* state?

I'm waiting for the ARG poll of Texas that shows it to be Kerry-57% Bush-25% Nader-15%.