Let me give you just two of many examples:
Population has shifted toward the red states. IIRC, Bush has an electoral edge of something like 17 points just from people moving to Texas and other states that are as safe as a babe in mother's arms for him.
Bush has only just begun to run ads, and only just begun to stump. Both his ad dumps and his stump speeches are to be feared by any opponent.
One last thing: We can all sit around and convince ourselves that the American people are going to be bamboozled by Kerry because they still don't know the real JFK like we do. Don't believe it for a second. Kerry is an also-ran, and the more he's seen the worse it will get for him. Don't worry, work hard and we'll win this thing. And ask everyone you meet "Who are you voting for" and educate and/or recruit accordingly.
I had a Dim glumly tell me that his vote "won't count" in Texas. Especially after the redistricting. "Texas is a lock for W," he said. "That's why neither party runs ads here." I don't believe it. Few cities are as rabidly activist as Austin, TX. Probably trying to lull me into skipping election day. Regardless of the odds, whether Bush is up or down by 10 points, VOTE! VOTE! VOTE!