Don't kid yourself. Kerry got a small bounce. Enough to make Bush worry.
I think we'll know in October how this election will pan out.
Your opinion, I think its all noise. Its been 45-45 since 2000. A couple of the ten will go to the fringes and the other 8 percent who are starved for attention will hold out as long as possible.
The event that will decide this election hasn't happened yet. I'll ping you when it does.