You don't have a clue what you are talking about - I was on the GWB 2000 MI team and I am a "team leader" this year also in MI - (but say all you want about "internals" I was told by a lead GWB offical the night before the election in 2000 that the latest GWB interals showed GWB up by 6pts! in MI and we would WIN MI for sure) -
Obviously the following night...I knew what to think of "MI internals" -
The fact is MI is a lean Kerry State - Plain and simple - MI has trended DEM big time over the last 10 years - Teachers Union (is huge!), Auto-Workers (huge), Trial-Lawyers (huge group in MI and hate GWB), African American vote in Detroit (carries the State for the DEM's alone) -
This poll is not good news - We are less then 90 days out -
POA2...just gotta love your style! One hint of negatism and dire polling and you're on it like Tokyo Rose. The cutesy "chicken-little" gig just prompts me to send more dough to B/C '04, and, today, the Swift Boat Patriots.
What are you?
Right, buddy.
Michigan is so pro-democrat, which is why we have a Republican legislature and Republican judiciary.
Good summary. The Detroit-Ann Arbor axis gives the Rats a power base that is hard for the other areas to beat back. The margin for this poll seems on the high side, but come election day MI will likely be in the Kerry column, IMO. Too many union activists, liberal college professors and students, and minorities that are going on their third or fourth generation of living on government handouts. The Rats take those demographic groups hands down. If Bush wins MI, I'll eat my hat.
This poll is not good news - We are less then 90 days out -
Certainly not good news. Losing never is. But I never thought Bush had much of a shot at winning MI. You have to try your best, I know, because that's all you can do, but there comes a time when you have to face the facts. We can rant and rave all we want over "inaccurate" or "biased" polls, but history doesn't lie. Rats have been strong in statewide races in MI in several elections now (Granholm winning the governorship, Stabenow booting out Abraham, Gore winning the state in 2000). Kerry probably has the edge in continuing that trend.
This is shaping up more and more like 2000 all over again. 90 days out and Bush really needs to shore up support in states he won in 2000. FL and OH top the list. OH has been looking a little better, but WV, NH, and NV could be trouble. I don't buy the "there's plenty of time" argument, either. Time is fast running out. Three months is getting down to the short strokes.