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Looks like a 31% Rep. 39% Dem 28% Ind. likely voter sample
That's why it's off. There is no 8% dem lean here, and there's no way in hell Kerry will win by 11%(Klinton won by about that in 96, 7% in 92 - with Perot factored in). I'd say 3-4% Dem lean here is about accurate. Gore won by 5%, and that's with a MASSIVE black turnout.

Kerry will not win by 11% here. No one does at the top of the ticket unless the other guy is a joke or is abandoned(or both).

2002
Granholm(D) by 4% over Posthumus
Cox (R) by 5500 votes over Peters
Land(R) by 10% over a somewhat abandoned dem, Hollowell.
Lenin by 21% over an abandoned GOP, Rocky

2000
Gore by 5%
Stabmenow by 1%

1998
Engler (R) by about 30% over Fieger
Miller (R) routed an abandoned Dem by over 30%
Granholm(D) by 4% over Smetainka.