Fearless Warrior versus French BunnyMan. :)
Posted on 08/04/2004 8:39:40 AM PDT by Names Ash Housewares
I personally expect an even Bigger Bounce...
Democratic convention talked about nothing... just how evil basically Bush is... but offered nothing, no vision, no goals, no anything
Bush and Reps on the other hand will be touting the victories in the war on terror, the arrests that continue to be made around the world.... the progress in Iraq... the desire to get rid of the IRS...... The positive economic data... The success of his faith baith initiatives... etc etc etc...
Kerry will drop like a rock... he will be left with nothing but the hard left anti war Bush haters... I don't think nationwide this election is going to be close. By election day its going to be solid 5 points or more toward Bush, giving him a victory even Bubba couldn't muster.. a majority of the electorate and a majority of the Electorial College.
The Democratic ticket is AMAZINGLY WEAK... The most liberal Senator combined with a guy who's only ran and won 1 race in his life and faces certain defeat if he tried to get re-elected.
of course, this merely means (d) the entire dem nation is whistling past the graveyard.
it would be better for Rudy to take on Chucky- give us one Senator willing to support the President. Then you get some judges. 2004 should be "Here come the judge."
Fearless Warrior versus French BunnyMan. :)
The Kool Aid drinkers were forced to eat spinach and it showed.
Guiliani's speech at the convention should get a 2 point bounce by itself. He lived September 11th and he is an American patriot.
Gad what a follower he is - filching camapign lines and poses...!
According to Matt Dowd, Bush's pollster, NO CHALLENGER IN HISTORY has ever won when he didn't get a double-digit convention bounce.
And filching them from REPUBLICANS! People are actually going to vote for him!
The problem with your analysis is that no one except the hard-core committed watch the conventions any more.
http://128.255.244.60/quotes/78.html Iowa Electronic Markets
Its not about the live convention, its about the sound bites and news coverage that will come from the convention... What Bush says will be the talk of pundits for days after, and you won't see goofy photos of Bush, saluting like Gomer Pyle coming out of it either.
Kerry offered NOTHING... his speech was like watching a bad sienfeld episode.... 55 minutes and nothing.. no memorable quote, not sound bites, no grand vision. If you offer nothing for the pundents and talking heads to talk about they only thing they have left to talk about is how good or bad of a speech it was.. which is exactly what you got Post Kerry speech.
With some die hard leftist claiming it a home run, some die har right saying it sucked.. and the middle just Yawning and saying... what the hell was that?
Also, more folks will watch I believe Bush's speech than Kerry's for a few reasons. A) BUSH IS THE PRESIDENT.. a president speaks and people listen, an canidate speaks and ho hum. Now yes, not everyone will be watchin for sure, but it will draw more than Kerry... an hour or whatever of unedited direct delivery from a War president to the population during wartime will get a bigger audience... that's reality. B) Republican Convention is closer to election, the closer to election you get the more people pay attention. C) ON a likability scale Bush is just a more likable fellow than Kerry.
Bush will emerge from the convention with a Message, and a vision.. while Dems purpose for their convention was to basically do their best not to offend anyone, and to avoid John's Political record at all cost.. .after all most liberal senator in america isn't going to win you votes... Bush will speak of his record, his administrations accomplishments and the accomplishments they desire to take on in the next 4 years.
Pundits will have loads to talk about, and folks will listen... if not to the speech directly then to the aftermath of it.
ITs not going to be close in November. No Nixon or Reagan whipe out, but its not going to be close.
That pic deserves a thread of its own!
Ok, you make good points. (BTW, I've been saying since DECEMBER that Bush would win with 330 EVs).
I'm curious. Why do you say that?
Antipathy toward Cheney?
Why?
Yeah, a 10 point bounce for Kerry as Republicans desert the ticket in droves.
Cheney is a rock-solid candidate who has the gonads to do what is necessary in this dangerous world.
Guilani is a good man, a nice guy and was a great mayor.
Too liberal for the national ticket, however.
By the way, why did he drop out of the race against Hillary in 2000? He said it was because of prostate cancer, but did you notice he was up and running healthy within months after that election.
He even had enough stamina to lead only seven months later during the 9/11 attacks.
Makes me think the prostate thing was simply an excuse.
I wonder if Tom Ridge will announce his intention to leave his post in January, and before the convention Bush announces that Giuliani will be the replacement, would that give an equivalent bounce?
And the next day, Kerry says "If elected, I'll pick Giuliani as head of Homeland Security, too!!"
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