Posted on 08/03/2004 9:28:38 PM PDT by Jet Jaguar
Dem’s Bounce, Or No – Clintons Still Rule
The Democratic National Convention came and went, and I was wrong. When I wrote to you last Tuesday, I had watched Bill and Hillary Clinton speak on the opening night last Monday. As I noted, they were fabulous, especially Bill. I honestly thought he was at his career best. And I thought the Clintons had set the stage for a full-blown Democratic bounce of 10-15 points, or maybe even more. (Please note that as a conservative, I am no great fan of Bill Clinton, but I do believe he is one of the best “pure politicians” of our time.)
Yet one week later, the race is still a dead heat. Kerry leads by 2-3 points in some polls, and Bush leads by 2-3 in others, with the Republican National Convention still to come in August. So, what happened?
The Dem’s plan was to get Bill and Hillary out of the way early on, so they would not overshadow Kerry. I had my doubts, as you know, but Bill and Hillary delivered everything the Kerry campaign had hoped for and more. Then Bill left town, and Hillary hung around for another couple of days of photo ops. Again, what happened?
I thought Tuesday night of the convention was a bust. Teresa Heinz Kerry was dull, at least to me. Wednesday night was John Edwards, who was energized as always and delivered a great speech, typical of a fabulously successful trial lawyer. Yet several commentators thought he looked a little shifty, with his eyes darting back and forth at times. Then John Kerry on the last night delivered a very good speech, but almost everyone agreed it was too long and definitely too hurried. He had to speak over dozens of major applause moments.
In the end, they got it wrong. The Clintons still own the Democratic party and the hearts and minds of many Americans. They were the best of the Dem’s convention. For conservatives like me, we are thankful for the 22nd Amendment which says no one can serve more than two terms as president. Otherwise, Bill Clinton might now be running for his fourth term in office.
Anyway, it now seems clear to me that the Democratic strategists got it all wrong. They should have had Bill and Hillary speak on the last night, leading up to Kerry’s acceptance speech, which should have been much shorter. Then they all should have hugged, raised hands and given thumbs up after Kerry’s speech. That might have given them the clinching convention bounce they dearly needed.
But that’s just my take on it. Here is how political analyst Dick Morris summed up the lack of a convention bounce for Kerry in his latest column out today:
“In the first three nights, Bill Clinton, Barack Obama and John Edwards made the right decision and focused on the domestic concerns. As one listened to their speeches, the issues that predate 9/11 got larger and terror got smaller as a key issue for November.
They said, in essence, that terror is something you read about in the papers or see on TV. But drug prices, health insurance, wage levels and schools are the reality you see every day in your own life. As with State of the Union messages, terror and foreign policy had a place in these speeches, but not overshadowing the rest.
Then came the uniforms. Old ones to be sure, but Kerry chose to showcase his Vietnam record to the virtual exclusion of anything else on the convention's final night. His old shipmates, Max Cleland and his salute on taking the podium all served to remind voters that we are, indeed, at war and that Kerry is running for the post of wartime — not peacetime — president.
In that one night, Kerry gave all of the gains of the previous three days back to the Republicans. (Rasmussen's daily tracking poll actually has Kerry dropping two points in the aftermath of his Thursday speech).
Kerry compounded the problem by venturing no information about his public career in the Senate for the past two decades. He did nothing to refute three months of negative ads labeling him as an ultra-liberal, big spender. He did not tell us what the Kerry Bill was or the Kerry Amendment or the Kerry hearings. As far as we know, there wasn't any.
Voters don't want a lieutenant for president. They want a commander-in-chief… Voters want a president with brains, not just guts, and all they saw was a warrior telling his old tales on Thursday night. And it wasn't enough. ”
You may agree or disagree with Dick Morris, the colorful and outspoken former political advisor to Bill Clinton, but he always makes some good points in his editorials and TV interviews. He is, by the way, often critical of President Bush and his campaign.
Even So, It’s Still A Dead Heat
Now the question is, can George W. Bush and the Republicans get the bounce they dearly need? Will the Republicans be able to orchestrate a convention bounce at their convention? Maybe, but I tend to doubt it. As I said last week, the Republicans don’t have a tag-team challenger to the Clintons. The TV ratings were absolutely horrible for the Democratic National Convention, and they aren’t likely to be much better for the Republicans.
So, by the end of August, this thing could still be a statistical dead heat. Maybe it comes down to the debates. If so, the edge might be to Kerry. He can articulate the policy answers more eloquently than Bush, although he risks coming off as a liberal policy wonk. The debates are not Bush’s strongest suit, but then if his handlers will let Bush be Bush (ie – forget the scripted talking points), the President resonates with rank and file Americans. After all, Bush fared well against Al Gore in the 2000 debates. In the end, it will probably be another close horse race.
With all this in mind, I will watch the Republican National Convention just as closely as I watched the Dem’s convention, and I will report accordingly in the days afterward.
I don’t know if you like watching these political events as much as I do, but this year is going to be something special, with the country polarized like never before, with new terrorist threats and a race that could be a photo finish at the end on November 2.
Whatever side you are on, buckle your seatbelts!
Very best regards,
Gary D. Halbert
Thanks, I bookmarked it.
My comment is to thank you for your service, and to ask you to NEVER use the words expose and Hillary in the same paragraph.
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