Posted on 08/02/2004 10:16:47 AM PDT by Momaw Nadon
The reapportionment based on the 2000 census means that if Kerry won every state Gore won in 2000 and added NH and WV, he would still lose. The states Bush carried in 2000 now have 278 EV. If NH and WV were removed from that total, Bush would have 269 EV which is half but not a majority. The election would be thrown to the House where Bush would be reelected on a state by state vote.
Boy, wouldn't this PO the Michael Moores, the Al Frankens, and the BowelMoveOn.orgs of the world!
I think Kerry pulled his ads from Missouri.
I didn't understand a word you said, but whatever it was, I agree with you! :-)
Good explanation. THAT I understood. Good analysis.
And while Kerry tries to chip away at a select number of Red States, Bush can work on Wisconsin, Minn., PA. The Bush states that could go Kerry are small in comparison to the Gore states that could go Bush.
I was aware of the reapportionment. Maybe I forgot one state that Kerry had to pull. I will double check the article. The gist of the article was that if it looked by early September that he didn't have a good shot of winning either Ohio or Florida, he would cobble together some small states. I thought it was only NH and WV but I must be forgetting one. The article was in response to Kerry pulling ads from Az., Co., La., and Mo.
Agreed. I think it will be a landslide. They even say Jersey is close (although I will eat my hat if Joisey goes for Dubya).
That analysis actually makes sense. The election hinges on the battleground states, and there are only a handful of those. By Sept., if Kerry's chances are down to the necessity of winning New Hampshire and WV, it will be an indication of how desperate his campaign is.
That chart certainly seems to predict the "no bounce" convention.
What I think: Team Bush has Kerry right where they want him. Now begins a four-week blitz of Bush ads while Kerry pulls his ads. Bush will get a bump from the GOP convention because much of Kerry's support is soft. Iraq will continue to improve. The economic numbers will continue to improve. I think we can expect a semi-final report from the Iraq Survey Team in September on Saddam's WMD which will blow all the naysayers out of the water. The public will get to know the "Winter Soldier" side of Kerry and will realize he's not the hero he claims to be. I still think a Bush landslide is highly likely (55%+ of the popular vote). While this is optimistic, I think it is very likely that Bush will keep all the states he won in 2000, and win Penn., Michigan, Wisconsin, Minn., New Mexico, and Oregon.
Whoa, I agree. I didn't realize the petition drive has been that successful.
Of course, the drive organizers probably spent most of their time in Denver and Boulder, getting names.
I hope the Colorado GOP is planning an simultaneous effort to educate voters about this hooey.
Agreed. While normally not a conspiracy guy, I just have this gut feeling that Hillary is going to pull the rug out from Kerry and the pretty boy. If it's close and Edwards keeps outshining Kerry he will present a challenge to her in '08-she will ensure it is a blowout so that Edwards is done.
Uh, right.
Please put me on your ping list!!
Thanks
This would violate the constitution, because only the state legislatures may change the method of allocating electoral college votes. A referendum is not the state legislature, and according to SCOTUS in Bush v Gore neither are the courts. It also violates federal law because the method of selecting a state's electors must be set at least six days prior to the the date of selecting them.
There should be a lawsuit to take it off the ballot period. The United States Constitution very specifically gives the power to determine the method by which a state's electors are chosen to the state legislature and the state legislature alone - not referenda, not state courts, and not federal courts.
Section 1 The executive Power shall be vested in a President of the United States of America. He shall hold his Office during the Term of four Years, and, together with the Vice-President chosen for the same Term, be elected, as follows: Each State shall appoint, in such Manner as the Legislature thereof may direct, a Number of Electors, equal to the whole Number of Senators and Representatives to which the State may be entitled in the Congress: but no Senator or Representative, or Person holding an Office of Trust or Profit under the United States, shall be appointed an Elector. The Electors shall meet in their respective States, and vote by Ballot for two persons, of whom one at least shall not lie an Inhabitant of the same State with themselves. And they shall make a List of all the Persons voted for, and of the Number of Votes for each; which List they shall sign and certify, and transmit sealed to the Seat of the Government of the United States, directed to the President of the Senate. The President of the Senate shall, in the Presence of the Senate and House of Representatives, open all the Certificates, and the Votes shall then be counted. The Person having the greatest Number of Votes shall be the President, if such Number be a Majority of the whole Number of Electors appointed; and if there be more than one who have such Majority, and have an equal Number of Votes, then the House of Representatives shall immediately chuse by Ballot one of them for President; and if no Person have a Majority, then from the five highest on the List the said House shall in like Manner chuse the President. But in chusing the President, the Votes shall be taken by States, the Representation from each State having one Vote; a quorum for this Purpose shall consist of a Member or Members from two-thirds of the States, and a Majority of all the States shall be necessary to a Choice. In every Case, after the Choice of the President, the Person having the greatest Number of Votes of the Electors shall be the Vice President. But if there should remain two or more who have equal Votes, the Senate shall chuse from them by Ballot the Vice-President. The Congress may determine the Time of chusing the Electors, and the Day on which they shall give their Votes; which Day shall be the same throughout the United States. No person except a natural born Citizen, or a Citizen of the United States, at the time of the Adoption of this Constitution, shall be eligible to the Office of President; neither shall any Person be eligible to that Office who shall not have attained to the Age of thirty-five Years, and been fourteen Years a Resident within the United States. In Case of the Removal of the President from Office, or of his Death, Resignation, or Inability to discharge the Powers and Duties of the said Office, the same shall devolve on the Vice President, and the Congress may by Law provide for the Case of Removal, Death, Resignation or Inability, both of the President and Vice President, declaring what Officer shall then act as President, and such Officer shall act accordingly, until the Disability be removed, or a President shall be elected. The President shall, at stated Times, receive for his Services, a Compensation, which shall neither be increased nor diminished during the Period for which he shall have been elected, and he shall not receive within that Period any other Emolument from the United States, or any of them. Before he enter on the Execution of his Office, he shall take the following Oath or Affirmation: "I do solemnly swear (or affirm) that I will faithfully execute the Office of President of the United States, and will to the best of my Ability, preserve, protect and defend the Constitution of the United States." Article II.
All set.
I am hoping for a wider spread in favor of Bush after the convention.
God I hope Bush doesnt lose NH i will never hear the end of it I moved up here to escape Kerryesque individuals
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