Poll: Smith makes strides in Michigan's 7th District congressional race

Myrtle Beach Online ^ | 23 Jul 2004 | DEE-ANN DURBIN

[Amish]

Poll: Smith makes strides in Michigan's 7th District congressional race

DEE-ANN DURBIN

Associated Press

WASHINGTON - Brad Smith has gained ground in the Republican primary for Michigan's 7th District congressional seat and is even with former state Sen. John "Joe" Schwarz as the Aug. 3 primary approaches, according to a poll released Friday.

Smith and Schwarz each had the support of 22 percent of 400 likely GOP voters in the poll by EPIC/MRA of Lansing. Seventeen percent were undecided. The poll questioned voters Monday through Wednesday and had a margin of error of 5 percentage points.

State Rep. Clark Bisbee of Jackson had 14 percent and former state Rep. Tim Walberg of Tipton had 12 percent. State Rep. Gene DeRossett of Manchester had 7 percent and former state Rep. Paul DeWeese of Eaton Rapids had 6 percent.

"There can no longer be any question that this race will be won by either me or Joe Schwarz," Smith said Friday.

Smith is the son of U.S. Rep. Nick Smith, a Republican who currently holds the 7th District seat but is stepping down at the end of the year.

Ed Sarpolus of EPIC/MRA said Smith picked up many of the voters who were undecided in a June poll. He has raised $439,567 as of July 14, more than any other candidate, and is spending it on targeted mailings and television ads that prominently mention his father.

"This election was up for purchase, and Brad got the money and spent it most effectively," Sarpolus said.

Smith, an attorney who lives on a farm in Lenawee County, is a favorite in rural Branch and Hillsdale counties. Schwarz, a surgeon from Battle Creek, has substantial support in Calhoun and Eaton counties. The district also covers Jackson County and a portion of Washtenaw County.

Bisbee was endorsed by Right to Life of Michigan and National Right to Life, but so far that hasn't translated into overwhelming support from voters who identify themselves as abortion opponents. Smith has the support of one-quarter of abortion opponents, more than any other candidate. Bisbee has 16 percent, while Schwarz, the only candidate in the race who supports abortion rights, has the support of 15 percent of abortion opponents.

Sarpolus said Right to Life needs to be active in the campaign's final week if it's going to stop abortion opponents from splitting their vote.

"Right to Life needs to save the political life of Clark Bisbee," Sarpolus said.

Right to Life has said it is sending 40,000 letters and making 20,000 calls on Bisbee's behalf.

Bisbee spokesman Sean McCaffrey said the poll doesn't reflect other polls the campaign has seen. McCaffrey questioned whether EPIC/MRA is accurately determining the people most likely to vote. He added that Bisbee's support in his home county of Jackson is higher than the 36 percent this poll indicates.

"If anything it will make us work harder, but it doesn't accurately reflect where we are," McCaffrey said,

Sarpolus said the wild card in the race is DeRossett, who was running ahead in the spring but lost support when he stopped running television ads. A new ad which will run through the primary accuses Schwarz of favoring gay marriage.

Schwarz denies the claim and sent a letter from his attorney to DeRossett Friday demanding the ads be taken off the air. DeRossett spokesman Steve Mitchell responded that the ad is accurate and will stay on the air.

The poll didn't examine the district's Democratic primary, which pits organic farmer Sharon Renier of Munith against consultant Drew Walker of Battle Creek and paramedic Douglas Wilson of Oxford.

[Amish]

I started out planning to back Smith because of his Dad and the Club For Growth Backing, but the view from Battle Creek has been that he's hardly running a campaign.

With this poll showing him as the most likely to beat Schwarz, I guess we'll have two more votes for him on Tuesday.

Anybody but Schwartz!

(ABS)