My POV is the same as Mark Steyn --- the more you see (and hear) from Kerry, the less people like him.
I kinda had a feeling that Kerry wouldn't do so well, with nothing more of a minimal bounce. Now Gallup, which isn't a bad organization, shows a NEGATIVE likely voters bounce. To really pull away, Bush has to have a great convention, drop the hammer on John² after Labor Day, and hold his ground in the debates. If that happens, barring any October surprises/dirty tricks, Bush should be able to get re-elected.