Election day predictions: Bush 54%...Kerry 43% Nader 3%.
I think you're on the money. Ronaldus Magnus, in 1984, his best year got 59%. At a minimum, any Democrat is going to start out with 43% of the vote. That was the margin of Clinton's first win in 1992 and four years later he still received under 50%. This election is not gonna be a landslide for Bush but its going to splinter what's left of the Democratic Party.