[Petronski]

Absolutely. Kerry has an easy job: no attacks means there has been an exaggeration, any attack means the administration failed to protect us, again.

[AmericanInTokyo]

There is a reverse logic to that can also be used by the Administration, though.

They kinda' cancel each other out.

In the end, the American people (at least those in the middle/still undecided as of 1 August), which are the swing voters and particularly those in the battleground states, would cut strongly in FAVOR of Bush if there were an attack on America.