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Not many will watch the convention, with coverage the smallest ever.

Most folks already have chosen a side. There just is not that many people to sway.

However, I do think that the Bush speech will fire up people because when he really hits a homerun...and this would be a really pressure-full situation in a convention that tends to produce W homeruns...he gets people fired up.

Therefore, I expect the convention to result in a bigger bounce and a more-lasting bounce that will translate into votes and a W win.

HOWEVER, we should not expect some huge bounce. There just are not that many undecides. Still, I think we will get 7-12 points out of it...almost definitely not more though.

I see a bigger convention bounce for Bush simply because the drama of it all will attract more viewers. The convention will be held in New York City (a stroke of genius BTW) just prior to the 9/11 anniversary. High profile Republicans such as Rudy Giuliani and Arnold Schwarzenegger will be on hand and people are going to actually tune in to hear them speak (as opposed to Ted Kennedy and Al Sharpton).

The Dems blew their convention by having it in friendly territory (Boston). A politically gutless decision. Just imagine the ridicule that the Dems would have heaped on Bush had he chosen Houston as his convention site! By taking the convention to the Big Apple, Bush is going to be taking Hillary and Kerry head-on in their own turf as well as making a statement to the American people that he is not afraid to go to New York City - the scene of the 9/11 attacks and the biggest target of what few terrorists remain (thanks to his War on Terror).

It's already shaping up to be a political home run.