Think of their audience. The Bush=Hitler crowd are about as motivated as they can be. Kerry is a dud, but he's inflated by the degree to which his base is crazily focused. Problem is, his base is also split and believes in things that make it hard for him to move towards the middle. I predict failure for him, but expect to see a interesting campaign.
His base is gonna peter out...they've spent all of their energy promoting a movie.