As to the India/Pakistan/China dynamic, it is a real tossup. My wild guess is that India will see China as the winner and openly support China (France wasn't the only country to hold joint exercises with China; India held one back in November of 2003.) But one assassination in Islamabad could change everything overnight.
"wasn't the only country to hold joint exercises with China; India held one back in November of 2003."
Well sorry to say this,your views on Indo-China relations are based on a few assumptions.Being an Indian ,living in India ,i'm at a slightly (not boasting here) better position to understand the dynamics of India-China relations.The exercise you referred to did happen-but it was essentially a courtesy port visit which also included search & rescue drills-no weapons were fired(do you think 2 future rivals want to show each other their wares.Besides does'nt the US Navy conduct exercises with the Saudis, Egyptians & a lot of Arabs,many of whom don't even recognize Israel.If your logic is applied here ,wouldn't the US back them in a conflict against Israel(did i forget to add that India has held "hot" naval exercise with the Japanese , Vietnamese & South Korean navies,all of whom are not bosom buddies of the PRC)-India is a developing country which wants a big role for itself,if the US can engage terrorists like the Pakis & the Saudis,can u blame India(or even the French) for conducting exercises.The blunt fact of the matter is India does'nt trust the China,though they don't necessarily oppose them as well-the same excuse that folks on here use-NATIONAL INTERESTS!!!!
I don't know whether you did so intentionally ,but u seem to have left out the American angle in all this.Afterall in 1971, when Indira Gandhi was about to split Pakistan,Nixon did converse with Mao,who agreed to mobilize their military divisions to deter India(the Soviet mobilisation made the Chicoms backoff).If the US is prepared to give India the status it deserves,I see no reason why it shouldnt oppose China.