[SunkenCiv]

The issue is not Pan-Sino nationalism? China wants Taiwan. The US won't accept the conquest -- and conquest is what it will be. The Shanghai Communique (Nixon for US, Mao for China) states that there is only one China, and Taiwan says fine, but it's on the mainland, and has nothing to do with us. That is an admission that the civil war is over and the KMT lost. It comes from drinking a big glass of reality, rather than insisting on an extinct past. The same thing happened in Yugoslavia. For some, it still hasn't happened as regards the American Civil War.

[Fee]

If reality is more important than principle, here is a reality one must deal with. Prior to 9/11 Taiwan can push for independence and assume that the US cannot afford PRC usage of military force without ramifications to our Asian allies. Today we are in Iraq and Afghanistan fighting our War on Terrorism (WOT) with the prospect of expanding the war against Iran and/or Syria. These coming fights are merely battles in the WOT. We still do not know what the outcome will be. Will terrorism be defeated or will lead to a larger war (Clash of Civilization) with the rest of the Arab Islamic world. I think Taiwan will row the dice, causing a clash between the US and PRC. China will lose the war, but she will not forget and will become the second assymetric front in our current WOT. We are a great power, but can we fight a two front war?? The EU, Russia and India will sit like monkeys and watch two lions fight. Taiwan gains, but what do we get in return?