Well, I think I've read and posted on nearly every oil thread that's been on this forum in the last few years, and I see people whom I know are in the oil industry saying the same thing I'm saying:
We aren't going to run out of oil!
Why is it so difficult to believe the people who work in it every day?
We see more production charts, look at more seismic plots and read more trade journals about the oil and gas business in a month than you will in a lifetime.
The reason no new refineries are being built is because it's not economically feasible to install the necessary scrubbers to comply with EPA regulations.
The return on the investment is not there.
I've been in this business for over forty years, and I've never talked to anyone in the business who thought that our worldwide supply of gas and oil was going to end.
There are huge reserves we haven't even tapped yet, both foreign and domestic.
Did Iran actually discover a 40 billion barrel oilfield last year? Maybe they did, but that adds only 10% to the ME reserves.
But I wonder why the price of oil and natural gas appear to be in a long-term uptrend? If the supply is plentiful, why would prices go up?
Also, your views seem diametrically opposed to that of a number of seemingly well-credentialed and experienced people who contend that production capacity will peak. Peak production is, of course, very different than running out. Not all of those in the other camp seek to peddle books - why the considerable difference in conclusions, given the same information?
China was a net exporter of crude oil not long ago. Now it imports oil, not because production is down but because their economy is becoming developed. The same thing is happening in India, and together those two countries have about half of the entire population of the world.
The world currently consumes about 12.5 terrawatts of energy, but it is projected to consume 100 terrawatts of energy by the end of this century. That's equivalent to the production capacity of an additional 51 Saudi Arabias per year.
Not even the most optimistic oilman thinks that we're going to we're going to make those kinds of discoveries during this century.
We're certainly not going to make up that shortfall in energy supplies with windmills, biomass, or solar energy. There is only one source of energy that can make up that gap. Nuclear.
Perhaps we can harness fusion energy someday, and that will be the ultimate answer. But until then, energy will largely come from hydrocarbons and nuclear power. We will have to build more nuclear plants in America. We will have no choice.